12Z HWRF throwing out 947mb right before landfall. 953 at landfall, Dauphin Island/MS Gulf Coast. It's always a bit aggressive, but right to often to ignore.
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Tropical Depression 9
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akt1985
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I know ESPN/ABC doesn’t want to, but I can see the Georgia/Bama game being moved to 11 AM on Saturday. If it was a game against an FCS school it would be no big deal to cancel. However, this game might have postseason implications down the line.
Well insulated. Lots of chance to deepen where it sits currently.
slenker
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I was fairly bearish on intensity this morning, but that’s since changed due to how it looks and the size it might get to. SSTs through its track are above 30 C and there’s a big blob of very rich OHC that it may be able to tap into in the central Gulf right now. Shear is still the only big question mark to me.
Quicker it intensifies the more likely for a stronger storm in general Imo
Yep. Absolute bathwater. Depth 26C Isotherm also indicates the typical Gulf warm pool of deep heat along the path.
From the NHC website:
"NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Nine (formerly AL92), located in the southwest Gulf of America, at 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC)."
"NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Nine (formerly AL92), located in the southwest Gulf of America, at 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC)."
N0mz
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Indeed - it's hard to imagine anything from previous years surviving this - I remain unconvinced that this just getting ripped apart is out of the question.
First forecast cone:
Peak of 100 mph in the NHC forecast.
Peak of 100 mph in the NHC forecast.
N0mz
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Google 12z is really quite aggressive. Worth noting the other AI models tend to agree while the classic models are less bullish.
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akt1985
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In case refineries in the Gulf are disrupted, I would suggest filling up with gas this evening in case prices spike on top of already high gas prices.
Wow, quite bullish on forecast intensity and rate of intensification.
Cat 2 showing on the NOAA board before landfall, so there's you 100mph right after the warm pool.
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Kds86z
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Ugh didn’t even think of that…… more reasons for gas to go higher
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Google tops out a Cat 2, with a Cat 1 coming ashore around Pensacola Friday night.
GFS track takes the Ivan route, exiting out to the Atlantic and looping back around to the Gulf. Canadian does something similar. Amusing to see if nothing else.
GFS track takes the Ivan route, exiting out to the Atlantic and looping back around to the Gulf. Canadian does something similar. Amusing to see if nothing else.