akt1985
Member
Might need to watch the Bay of Campeche in the Southwestern Gulf the first week of October for potential tropical development.
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Tropical Depression 9
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N0mz
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Yeah Google has some inklings of development around the 7th or so
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Google DeepMind is the only thing I'm really seeing, but it has been right before. They seem to have a good model.
I thought the Euro had something weak bouncing around the Gulf of Mexico and crashing into west Florida around the same time frame. It was a good bit north of the Bay of Campeche.
GFS trying to wrap something up out of the W Gulf next weekend.
Euro doesn't wrap it up, but is certainly showing a low pulling up moisture.
NHC at 40% on it.
Euro doesn't wrap it up, but is certainly showing a low pulling up moisture.
NHC at 40% on it.
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akt1985
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If that low does develop next weekend in the Gulf, it might be miserable in Tuscaloosa Saturday night for those attending the Georgia/Bama game.
Yet another Isaias affecting the US if it does indeed become a TC
I just hope it brings some rain - all i got out of today was a trace, and we needed a couple of inches.
Gfs plops a 970s mb hurricane hitting near Mississippi gulf coast. Nhc probabilities have went up as well
N0mz
Member
Google also seems to be zero'ing in on a landfall near the Florida Panhandle, although we are still very far out
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Inactivity doesn't correlate to weak storms, just a quick tidbit I'd like to get out there in general, not a statement directed towards anybody. It only takes one.
There is good ingredients if this is to be the only landfall in the US this year and it can very well be pretty notable. Watch this one.
There is good ingredients if this is to be the only landfall in the US this year and it can very well be pretty notable. Watch this one.
Current Nhc is 70%
N0mz
Member
We basically saw this play out exactly last year. Only one hurricane got into the Caribbean, but it was a doozy.
slenker
Member
ATM I'm thinking a C1 landfall. SSTs are boiling and heat content is very good, though, so I wouldn't be surprised if soon-to-be Isaias decides to blow up and make a run at being a major. I highly doubt anything higher than C3 though.
Up to 80% now, with this statement on the outlook:
"It is too early to determine the specific impacts to the northern Gulf Coast, but interests there should closely monitor the progress of this system."
N0mz
Member
Also designated as Invest 92L in the latest outlook. Will start to get spaghetti plots rolling by happy hour or 0z tonight.
Can’t remember the last major hurricane in the gulf that was cat 3 or higher. Was it Michael?
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akt1985
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There was Laura in 2020, Ida in 2021 and Helene in 2024.
Rafael 2024 at 110 kts, Helene 2024 at 120 kts, Milton 2024 at 155 kts, and so on
100% , I'm not sure we want to think about what an untapped Gulf can do after the entire summer of heating up. We just have to hope that the shear remains strong enough to limit it. This one seems like it probably has just about every potential outcome that it could have, everything from the sheer ripping it apart completely to a real monster. Anybody see any limiting factors other than the shear?
I note with interest that the ECMWF is still very much unimpressed.
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slenker
Member
Maybe dry air, but I haven't heard any discussion on that. Depends on the physical size of the system too, if it's a smaller storm I imagine it'll be easier for it to wrap itself up given the absurd heat content (barring shear feasting on it more easily because of that).