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Tropical Depression 9

slenker said:
Maybe dry air, but I haven't heard any discussion on that. Depends on the physical size of the system too, if it's a smaller storm I imagine it'll be easier for it to wrap itself up given the absurd heat content (barring shear feasting on it more easily because of that).
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Good point. There's certainly not a shortage of continental dry air for it to suck in, although all the moisture that we got from those Pacific systems is probably going to mitigate that somewhat.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Once we get into a more concrete range do yall think a severe thread should be made for the system? If the system mirrors what the gfs shows i would think inland spin ups will be a issue.
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Not yet. Imo, I think that the tornado threat can be mixed in if the system gets its own thread. Milton and Beryl got this treatment to my knowledge.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
All the hurricane model selections I’m looking at on tropical tidbits have. Tropical storm to hurricane making landfall around Mississippi to the Florida panhandle
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Yeah, not liking the HWRF. 960 right before. A pretty mean look, to be honest.
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Euro is quite an outlier this time. That... bugs me. It's right entirely too often to throw out. Hopefully we can wind up somewhere in the middle with a tropical storm that brings ground-soaking rain. Nature, however, has often seemed to have other plans this year. At least in the Pacific - we'll see if that translates to the Western Gulf, I guess. For what it's worth it looks like the Euro IS developing one that's just in the Pacific, right across from where 92L is now - and then the one in the Pacific strengthens and makes landfall in Mexico, sucking the energy out of the Gulf storm. Not sure I buy that, and each run seems to be decoupling them a little more. In fact, the 18Z ECMWF is on board with the Gulf Storm in general.
 
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Blountwolf said:
Yeah, not liking the HWRF. 960 right before. A pretty mean look, to be honest.
View attachment 55106


Euro is quite an outlier this time. That... bugs me. It's right entirely too often to throw out. Hopefully we can wind up somewhere in the middle with a tropical storm that brings ground-soaking rain. Nature, however, has often seemed to have other plans this year. At least in the Pacific - we'll see if that translates to the Western Gulf, I guess. For what it's worth it looks like the Euro IS developing one that's just in the Pacific, right across from where 92L is now - and then the one in the Pacific strengthens and makes landfall in Mexico, sucking the energy out of the Gulf storm. Not sure I buy that, and each run seems to be decoupling them a little more.
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Thankfully, the storm will likely be quite fast-moving, so at worst we won't see the major flooding impacts that exacerbated Katrina, Harvey, etc.
 
N0mz said:
Thankfully, the storm will likely be quite fast-moving, so at worst we won't see the major flooding impacts that exacerbated Katrina, Harvey, etc.
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Hopefully you're right, but the atmospheric rivers a big storm drags in don't play if they set up wrong for an area. Quick strike, but 5 inches of rain that fast... not great. And this is at 991 landfall.
1791252754496.png
 
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Blountwolf said:
Yeah, not liking the HWRF. 960 right before. A pretty mean look, to be honest.
View attachment 55106


Euro is quite an outlier this time. That... bugs me. It's right entirely too often to throw out. Hopefully we can wind up somewhere in the middle with a tropical storm that brings ground-soaking rain. Nature, however, has often seemed to have other plans this year. At least in the Pacific - we'll see if that translates to the Western Gulf, I guess. For what it's worth it looks like the Euro IS developing one that's just in the Pacific, right across from where 92L is now - and then the one in the Pacific strengthens and makes landfall in Mexico, sucking the energy out of the Gulf storm. Not sure I buy that, and each run seems to be decoupling them a little more. In fact, the 18Z ECMWF is on board with the Gulf Storm in general.
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I just don't trust any late-season storm in the Gulf. Especially with a year like this one. Like a lot of us, I've got family along this stretch of the Gulf Coast, so I've got my eye on this one very closely.

Model intensity guidance has already ticked way up.
1791252918809.png
 
Clancy said:
I just don't trust any late-season storm in the Gulf. Especially with a year like this one. Like a lot of us, I've got family along this stretch of the Gulf Coast, so I've got my eye on this one very closely.
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Same. Family in Mobile - If the models look like this tomorrow morning or worse, then I'm going to tell them to go ahead and get preparations underway.

And may the shear be the only thing the models are underestimating. Because it is bath water down there right now.
 
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