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    April 17-19, 2019 Forecast DIscussion

The probability of an El Nino this fall and winter has increased greatly. (1 Viewer)


Austin Dawg

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http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

So what effects may this have on fall or severe winter weather? Tornados, snow, ice, late hurricanes, flooding... and how may it affect the following spring.

Just a weather novice looking to promote discussion of possible trends to look for other than the above average rainfall throughout the southern US. I'm trying to remember recent El Ninos to research and get some insight from folks other than the press who will try to find a way to blame our government for the incoming weather pattern. ;):p:)

P.S. I am in no way trying to include politics in yet ANOTHER area of discussion.
 

Austin Dawg

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Ok...my bad. But I wasn't talking about the press, but rather the celebs and talking heads that blame things like hurricanes on something other than mother nature and other effects of the natural world as the root cause. My fault for putting the press in the original post.

Yet another example of my fingers typing something other than what my brain was thinking.

I withdraw my question and will put myself in time out.
 

Lori

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I’m not fond of El Niño’s!!


Sent from my iPhone using TalkWeather
 

Fred Gossage

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I’m not fond of El Niño’s!!


Sent from my iPhone using TalkWeather
They're often wet and stormy, and we have had some notable severe weather events during and coming out of El Nino events (4/8/98 being one), but the big outbreaks in history (4/3/74, 4/27/11, etc) have come in the springs when coming out of a moderate/strong La Nina and -PDO combo.
 

warneagle

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They're often wet and stormy, and we have had some notable severe weather events during and coming out of El Nino events (4/8/98 being one), but the big outbreaks in history (4/3/74, 4/27/11, etc) have come in the springs when coming out of a moderate/strong La Nina and -PDO combo.
Is there a causal mechanism there or has that not been established yet?
 

Fred Gossage

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Is there a causal mechanism there or has that not been established yet?
El Nino events often have an active storm track, but are most associated with the subtropical jet... meaning you get setups with coastal convection, poor lapse rates, etc. With a strong Nina/-PDO combo, you often get synoptic systems where you are dealing with the stronger polar jet itself (and with stronger synoptic systems because of the big baroclinic zone), steeper lapse rates, less in the way of coastal convective complexes, etc, etc.
 

MattW

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But El Nino is better for Southeastern wintry weather, right?
 

rolltide_130

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But El Nino is better for Southeastern wintry weather, right?
Honestly.. El Nino's are overrated IMHO for snowy SE winters. It is true that we get no shortage of moisture from the Gulf under these setups, but that could easily come with above average temperatures as well. We average one or two significant winter threats a season under El Nino, but that's close to overall climatological average here in North AL. If anything, I'm more interested in what impact El Nino will have on the cool severe weather season (particularly after how active November and December 2015 were) than I am as it pertains to winter weather.
 

Austin Dawg

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They're often wet and stormy, and we have had some notable severe weather events during and coming out of El Nino events (4/8/98 being one), but the big outbreaks in history (4/3/74, 4/27/11, etc) have come in the springs when coming out of a moderate/strong La Nina and -PDO combo.
I was trying to remember the last one here in Texas. I remember them in Mississippi well. It would start flooding in November and never seemed to stop.

It has been a little hotter this summer than the last couple here in south-central Texas. I was wondering if this could have contributed. They say we will have a milder and wetter fall/winter here, which would be welcome without the flooding. Flooding is dangerous everywhere but the flash floods here, unfortunately, very often cost lives in the flood-prone areas. It was difficult to comprehend when I first moved how you could have such dangerous floods in the hilly country after living in the flat Tombigbee River basin for so long and seeing primarily slow, rising flood waters.

I thought I remembered that the historical severe outbreaks were during La Nina events, thanks for confirming that.
 
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Am I wrong in saying there seems to be a link between El Ninos and active cold season severe weather? The winter of 2015 to 2016 comes to mind as a recent example, with the classic example being the 1992 Widespread Outbreak. The 1997 Central Arkansas outbreak was also a major early-season outbreak during a strong El Nino.
 

Fred Gossage

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Am I wrong in saying there seems to be a link between El Ninos and active cold season severe weather? The winter of 2015 to 2016 comes to mind as a recent example, with the classic example being the 1992 Widespread Outbreak. The 1997 Central Arkansas outbreak was also a major early-season outbreak during a strong El Nino.
There does seem to be, because of the active subtropical jet. I'm not so sure how much that March 1997 event applies, though. That happened March 1997, and the El Nino in question was during the 2007-2008 cool season. The severe weather effects are most prevalent during the cool season and the spring coming out of the El Nino. The active storm track coming out of that El Nino was one factor that allowed the 4/8/1998 and 4/16/1998 events to occur. The November 1992 event was also several months after the previous El Nino had retreated into cool neutral conditions, after the strong 1991-1992 El Nino.
 

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