Svr Wx Threat Sun 2/26/2023 (KS, OK, TX, MO) & Mon 2/27/2023 (IL/IN/OH)

[Shakespeare 2016]

Hmmmm.....Depends on what you count as QLCS. It's either 1981 or 2020.

I know it would probably be extraordinary rare but do you think it would be possible for an EF5 to come from a QLCS?

 

[tornado examiner]

I know it would probably be extraordinary rare but do you think it would be possible for an EF5 to come from a QLCS?

All it takes is one random subvortex to tear a well built well bolted house of its foundation

 

[buckeye05]

All it takes is one random subvortex to tear a well built well bolted house of its foundation

That by itself isn't EF5 damage.

 

[tornado examiner]

That by itself isn't EF5 damage.

Of course…

 

[warneagle]

I thought I saw a funnel like that (and so did the on-air meteorologist) in the live chaser video on KWTV as the Norman tornado had just cycled (apparently) and produced a new one around the time it crossed I-40 over northwest Shawnee. It was so quick, though in the lightning flashes and through the rain-spattered windshield it was hard to tell. Sure wasn't expecting highly visible condensation funnels yesterday, but I guess I shouldn't be surprised given the low-level inversion and relatively high LCLs. My mindset was that this was more like a Dixie setup due to nontraditional timing for the southern Plains (according to both the calendar and the diurnal cycle), but it really wasn't.

One of KOCO's spotters reported seeing a tornado down right around the same time so I think you're right about the timing on that.

 

[Lake Martin EF4]

Oh yes, South Carolina in April 2020 right?

Yep. Or West Bend, which wasn't an embedded supercell like Estill.

 

[Tennie]

So, just before 11:30 PM CST the night of the 26th, NWS Norman posted this Tweet summarizing the day's events:

(Source.)



(I think we here can all agree with that sentiment!)

 

[Gail]

It’s been a month! I’m ready for summer - boring sunshine and 90s day after day.

 

[atrainguy]

Cheyenne tornado has a preliminary rating of EF2.

 

[Lake Martin EF4]

Cheyenne tornado has a preliminary rating of EF2.

I hope that goes up. That did not cause just EF2 damage - that's easy EF3 at minimum.

 

[buckeye05]

I hope that goes up. That did not cause just EF2 damage - that's easy EF3 at minimum.

Yeah I've seen less impressive mobile home damage rated EF3, in fact, I'd say the Cheyenne mobile home damage is more intense looking than what I've seen from Old Kingston, AL from last month. With that said, I wouldn't say "minimum" of EF3 given the limitations of the mobile home DI (150 MPH). But any way you slice it, that contextual damage is NOT consistent with EF2 winds though.

 

[buckeye05]

Also, nothing in my area from yesterday's event was given a rating above EF1. I really thought we'd see at least low-end EF2 from the Middletown tornado given the roof and exterior wall loss at that one home. NWS Wilmington is weird. Sometimes they play it conservative like today, yet other times they seem to have a more liberal interpretation of the scale (Memorial Day 2019). What's odd is that today's surveys and the Memorial Day surveys were conducted by the same met; Andy Hatzos.

 

[Steel Central]

Hearing that Cheyenne got slapped with EF2-130. I assume theres a lot of angry opinions on this. About as bad of a lowball as Smithfield, NY 2014 in my honest observations.

 

[Equus]

Contextual evidence alone from Cheyenne makes it clear the intensity is consistent with EF3s, with tree damage alone that I feel BMX at least would rate mid to high end EF3, but I've stopped expecting offices to be consistent or take context into effect and am not surprised

 

[TH2002]

Contextual evidence alone from Cheyenne makes it clear the intensity is consistent with EF3s, with tree damage alone that I feel BMX at least would rate mid to high end EF3, but I've stopped expecting offices to be consistent or take context into effect and am not surprised

NWS Norman has been extremely inconsistent with their surveys. Sometimes they're rather lenient (Moore 2010), sometimes they're pretty balanced, like with Moore 2013 (although it would probably get an EF4 rating these days) and other times they're absurdly conservative - like with Cheyenne and Moore 2015.

And of course, everyone here already knows the level of consistency that can be expected when comparing different WFO's...

 

[buckeye05]

NWS Norman has been extremely inconsistent with their surveys. Sometimes they're rather lenient (Moore 2010), sometimes they're pretty balanced, like with Moore 2013 (although it would probably get an EF4 rating these days) and other times they're absurdly conservative - like with Cheyenne and Moore 2015.

And of course, everyone here already knows the level of consistency that can be expected when comparing different WFO's...

With Moore 2015, it was painfully obvious how hesitant they were to admit that they failed to warn for a strong tornado in a populated area. They sheepishly changed the narrative from:

-Straight line winds with some gustnado activity

to

-Straight line winds with couple of areas of weak tornado damage

to

-Low end EF2 that tracked through the south side of the metro area

That’s better than the initial assessment, but it was clearly stronger than low-end EF2.