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Svr Wx threat April 1-April 2 2024

jiharris0220 said:
Honest at this point I think it’s a now casting game to watch the environment and strength of surface low.
Biggest failure imo is everything growing upscale to fast.
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Yep. Remember Spann has pointed out many times about watching how the beginning unfolds as it sets the tone for the day. What we don’t want to see is a bunch of tornadic storms early. Let’s hope for a mess of convection!
 
National-level data outage from the NWS it seems; not optimal timing for transponders to break down. Also, the clowns who know the least and talk the most sure have a lot to say about it :)
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Tomcats Forever! said:
Does it look like the southern portion of the line in Kentucky is trying to go discrete?
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Looks like it may; it's heading into a supportive environment shear-wise, though lacking in instability, so not sure it holds together. That being said, this did happen yesterday.
 
Naturally I'm driving home from California during the most volatile severe weather threat of spring so far, so I can just hope things at home don't get overly spicy with me not being there to deal with it lol
 
I can’t say I’m confident that today will perform. It just seems like the moisutre is going to struggle to recover enough in time, and even if it does, upscale growth might be an immediate issue with less than due south low level shear vectors (more parralel which screams linear). I think you’re best shot is where there is higher vorticity in northern Kentucky and southern Indiana/Ohio. Any storms that can fire and not be impeded by the clusters to the south preventing development will be a cause for concern, but my low expectations are underpinned right now.
 
TheSuckZone said:
Huge hatched area for TOR in latest SPC outlook
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Thinking the southern mode may be the play now, but we shall see. Interesting the 15 hatched holds up north. Snippet says how SPC feels about AL and GA now.

A threat for strong tornadoes may focus this evening into tonight across parts of Alabama and Georgia.

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This is one of those days that either Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency or boom with no in between.
We either get a prolific tornado outbreak if storms stay discrete or a borderline nothing burger qlcs slop machine.
 
Edith said:
Yep. Remember Spann has pointed out many times about watching how the beginning unfolds as it sets the tone for the day. What we don’t want to see is a bunch of tornadic storms early. Let’s hope for a mess of convection!
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Unless you are a storm chaser like myself …. But hopefully things can stay out harms way … I am getting off work now … heading to central part southern tennessee
 
going to have to keep a close eye on the area in yellow below. already seeing clearing back that way. For reference, the green line is where the current convection is ... could be east of cincinnati in 90 mins or so.

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