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Svr Wx threat April 1-April 2 2024

KevinH said:
You haven’t “met” Dixie Alley have you? lol
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Ok I’m sorry, but you say this any time anyone brings up any type of potential limiting factors. Thats part of forecasting. Regurgitating the same line about Dixie being some magical land where the rules don’t apply, is not forecasting, nor does it contribute anything of value to the discussion.

I could say the same thing about Colorado: “There’s probably gonna be landspouts and tornadoes in Weld County because it’s Colorado!!” I mean yeah there’s a good chance, but that’s not a forecast, it’s an assumption.
 
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Hmmm. I see I've stumbled into Wxtwitter apparently this morning.
 
There's a decent hook near Harrodsburg, KY. Looks like it's tightening across last few scans. There's also a decent unwarned couplet to the north. Edit: The couplet is in tornado possible SVR.
 
...OH Valley...
Water-vapor imagery loop overnight showed a southern-stream
short-wave trough associated with this morning's severe thunderstorm
activity straddling the OH River in central KY and southern IN.
This early-day thunderstorm complex will probably pose a risk for
wind damage and perhaps a couple of tornadoes before it moves into
the central Appalachians towards midday (see MCD #341 for short-term
details). In its wake, a trailing outflow boundary/effective warm
frontal zone will likely advance northward into IN/OH later today
with lower to mid 60s progged to near I-70. Models continue to show
an appreciable window of opportunity in which cloud breaks/heating
and increasing low-level moisture contribute to moderate
destabilization during the afternoon. Have adjusted the western
envelope of severe probabilities farther west across IN to account
for greater destabilization than earlier forecast, but otherwise
have left the outlook unchanged across the OH Valley. Scattered
thunderstorms will likely develop by early to mid afternoon with
discrete supercells evolving from the more intense updrafts.
Tornadoes, large to very large hail, and damaging gusts are expected
with the supercells that mature across the warm sector. Enlarged
and elongated hodographs imply fast storm motions and the
possibility for several cyclic tornadic supercells, some of which
may yield strong and long-lived tornadoes.
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caught my eye in the 13z outlook.
 
Yeesh, yeah, one of the biggest 10% in a while, and a LOT of people in harm's way today potentially.
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Justin Hindman said:
I’m gonna say it again; I just don’t see Ohio getting a moderate risk verified. Kentucky and north Tennessee is the hot spot imo
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It's definitely possible, but not a given (it is a risk after all I suppose). Will depend on what happens with that clearing on satellite + dews.
 
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