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Svr Wx threat April 1-April 2 2024

Tennie said:
SPC is looking at possibly putting southern Mississippi under a watch soon:

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 350

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov
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HRRR looking a little sketchy
E4D9E237-6ED5-4B60-85AD-4DD042707C91.png
 
cincywx said:
already seeing patches of blue to my E/SE

02936082ab4614f759824935e143db3d.jpg
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c14934ba0131bb71e22e24428e8911a4.jpg


it’s only been 15 minutes.
 
Afternoon disco from FFC is concerning for the ATL area and west-central GA.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
256 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024


...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024

Key Messages:

-A potent storm system will produce a severe weather threat
beginning this evening and lasting through the overnight hours for
portions of north and central Georgia. The severe threat will
progress southeastward through the early morning hours on Wednesday.
All modes of severe weather will be possible.

-Portions of northwest and western central Georgia (including the
metro Atlanta, Columbus, and Macon areas) are under a 10% TOR hatch
where strong (greater than EF2) tornadoes will be possible.

-Northwest and western central Georgia are most likely to see strong
damaging wind gusts early this evening and through the overnight
hours with the damaging wind threat progressing southeast through
the early morning hours.

-Large hail (greater than 1 inch) will be possible in storms
areawide where the greatest chances will be across far northwest
Georgia.

-As the bulk of the storms are expected to move through during the
nighttime hours while many people may be sleeping, it is incredibly
important to ensure you have more than 1 way to receive warnings
this evening.


A nocturnal severe weather threat is expected to play out over
portions of north and central Georgia tonight lasting through the
early morning hours on Wednesday. The strengthening surface low is
currently over central Illinois with the warm front draped over
central Indiana and central Ohio, dipping southward into southern
Virginia. While generally cloudy skies have been in place today,
middle and high clouds have not been as present as previously
thought. Breaks in coverage in the low level cumulus field have
allowed diurnal surface heating to take place early this afternoon.
The extent to which heating may occur will play a role in the
surface based available potential energy for thunderstorms that are
expected to fire off this afternoon. In this morning's 12Z sounding,
a significant cap was in place at 850mb. This cap is still evident
in this afternoon's 18Z sounding, but is expected to erode through
the late afternoon in the presence of cold air advection aloft,
warming surface temperatures as high as the low 80s across much of
north and central Georgia, and moisture return at the lower levels
(dewpoints as high as 65 along and south of I-20).

The severe weather threat will begin with a line of storms
approaching form the northwest this afternoon. Across northwest
Georgia, surface based CAPE across northwest Georgia will run
between 500-750 J/kg where 50+kt of shear and 0-1km SRH between 150-
300+ m2/s2 are also progged. CAMs suggest a secondary wave later
this evening after sunset for areas further south across western
central Georgia as isolated discrete cells ahead of the main line
will eventually congeal with the initial line. This general timing
of these cells coincide with the of the 850mb low
level jet (wind speeds between 50 and 60kt), 0-1 SRH exceeding 200
m2/s2, and an unusual surge of surface based instability northward
from the Columbus area to the ATL metro during the overnight hours.
This instability within an increasingly favorable kinematic
parameter space late this afternoon through the early evening hours
have resulted in SPC progging an Enhanced Risk (level 3 out of 5)
for much of northwestern Georgia and western Georgia. All modes and
hazards of severe weather are expected with strong damaging wind
gusts (beginning first across north Georgia and spreading
southeastward through the early morning hours across central
Georgia), large hail 1 inch or greater across the entirety of the
area (far northwest Georgia is at the greatest risk), and the
potential for isolated tornadoes. In particular, locations across
northwestern and western central Georgia are at risk (as indicated
by the 10% TOR hatch from SPC) for strong tornadoes (EF2 or greater)
through the overnight hours. While the risk for flash flooding is
low, some locations may see rain rates sufficient to produce
localized flash flooding in the usual problematic spots.

Early tomorrow morning as the line continues to march through
eastern central Georgia, storms could restrengthen and redevelop
along the cold front after sunrise. The line is generally expected
to clear the area just after noon. High temperatures will be running
much cooler after the front moves in with high temperatures in the
upper 50s to low 70s. Winds will also be strong through the period
with gusts between 25 and 30 mph.
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The southern end of the line looks like it’s breaking up a bit and a couple of cells have popped in southwest Kentucky. It’ll be interesting to see if those storms in Indiana can do anything before the line catches them.
 
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