Svr Wx threat April 1-April 2 2024

[Jpgood97]

Local news in North AL going with a moderate-high risk threat level for tornadoes. Yesterday morning their risk was low and last night medium. Seems like their confidence has increased

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Bout to head home. I expect a very eventful late afternoon and evening. Ohio valley and Tennessee valley bros should buckle up!

 

[172556]

F

We've had crapvection ongoing for quite some time now in the WW77 area. Not sure it's going to make a difference, but 1500EST is right around the corner and we've had no clearing. Obviously SPC sees something as the probs are so high...

 

[KevinH]

Earlier today, the sky was overcast in W Cntrl GA..
And now….

 

[GeneralChow]

Storms near Evansville beginning to rotate.

 

[warneagle]

Those confluence bands in the OWS are a massive red flag. That’s a common feature you see as a focus for supercell development in high end events (4/27/11 being a good example).

 

[OHWX97]

Southwest Ohio is about to start clearing out very quickly.

 

[akt1985]

Ohio might get tornadoes today. Tomorrow they might get snow.

 

[Tennie]

Ohio might get tornadoes today. Tomorrow they might get snow.

Ohio in a nutshell, folks!

 

[OHWX97]

Ohio might get tornadoes today. Tomorrow they might get snow.

Business as usual here.

 

[TornadoFan]

Southwest Ohio is about to start clearing out very quickly.
View attachment 24758

Is the atmosphere there gonna have enough time to destabilize?

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Those confluence bands in the OWS are a massive red flag. That’s a common feature you see as a focus for supercell development in high end events (4/27/11 being a good example).

The April 3 1974 satellite similarities to today are alarming. Not as significant event today but it's interesting.

 

[buckeye05]

We've had crapvection ongoing for quite some time now in the WW77 area. Not sure it's going to make a difference, but 1500EST is right around the corner and we've had no clearing. Obviously SPC sees something as the probs are so high...

I was thinking the same. I’m just not sold on the eastern KY threat area compared the others to the west and south.

 

[Tomcats Forever!]

Is the atmosphere there gonna have enough time to destabilize?

If it's anything like central KY, yeah. Recovery was extremely quick once ithe second batch of showers passed.

 

[warneagle]

Looks like all of the crapvection has cleared out west of I-75. Guess we’ll see how much we can destabilize before go time.

72/64 at Louisville and 70/64 at Elizabethtown with 1000+ CAPE and 300+ ESRH per mesoanalysis.

 

[cincywx]

Southwest Ohio is about to start clearing out very quickly.
View attachment 24758

already seeing patches of blue to my E/SE

 

[Tempestas Tonitrua]

Still looking for that “spark” to light the fire so to speak. Evansville cells look like they are going to be ingested by the aforementioned line of storms in IL. Those small bands around Paducah may be something later on.

 

[Clancy]

 

[Tennie]

SPC is looking at possibly putting southern Mississippi under a watch soon:

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 350

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

www.spc.noaa.gov

Mesoscale Discussion 0350
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024

Areas affected...Portions of central/northern Louisiana into parts
of southern/central Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 021758Z - 022000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Though uncertainty exists, a watch is possible for
portions of central/southern Mississippi depending on overall trends
in storm coverage and organization. Large hail and damaging winds
are the primary hazards.

DISCUSSION...Storms in central Louisiana have steadily deepened over
the past hour or two. These storms will continue northeastward into
a moist airmass where temperatures are in the low 80s F. Additional
storms are possible along the pre-frontal wind shift and later the
cold front. The observed 17Z JAN sounding showed a very modest
decrease in a warm layer at around 700 mb. Effective shear is
sufficient for a few organized updrafts. Additional cooling aloft as
the main synoptic trough approaches may also lead to some
intensification by late afternoon. While the need for a watch is
uncertain at this time, a watch for parts of central/southern
Mississippi is possible should trends in convective coverage and
organization warrant.

..Wendt/Thompson.. 04/02/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 31708930 31468978 31269050 31079193 31319260 31689257
32079246 32409222 32789195 33339115 33669031 33518950
33028885 32118890 31708930

 

[warneagle]

Still looking for that “spark” to light the fire so to speak. Evansville cells look like they are going to be ingested by the aforementioned line of storms in IL. Those small bands around Paducah may be something later on.

They’re moving into the best shear, which is along the I-65 corridor around Louisville, some pockets of 400+ ESRH