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(Super) El Niño 2026-27

Jason Simpson made this for the very strong El Niño

I like his lottery ticket analogy, as it can pertain to more than just the El Niño.
At the end of the day, ENSO sets the pattern. A La Niña doesn’t mean a high-end event is guaranteed, it just means the pattern provides more chances (more troughs) for those events to happen.
 
We're on the move again. over 1 tenth of a degree warmer in the last 72 hours.

nino34.png
Replying to this because we got a big jump from the looks of it. Might exceed +2.5 C briefly here, but it looks like it'll hold off for the next few days with the fact that it plateaued again. Probably only a matter of time though.
 
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