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Sunday, April 2nd - South, SouthEast

Bevo

Bevo

Member
Messages
282
Location
Dallas, TX
Things have escalated quickly over the last 24 hours for north Texas, going from a marginal threat to now an enhanced risk with the DFW metro in the bullseye. Figured it would be prudent to make a thread.



There is a 30% hatch now for large hail and wind within the enhanced risk as well as unfortunately a 10% hatch tornado risk out for the same areas. Skies are rapidly clearing and recent model runs are pointing to discrete development in the next few hours with 2 rounds of storms.
 
The DFW Metro has a LOT of large-scale events happening today, including the Taylor Swift concert, Rangers ball game, the NCAA Women's Final Four, and an Indy race. These will all contribute to traffic around the time the weather is forecasted to be nasty, so please stay weather aware if you're out and about.
 
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Dews around 60 have already advected up north here, per SPC mesoanalysis. Crazy considering they were closer to 40 earlier this morning.
 
present.jpg
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
625 AM CDT Sun Apr 2 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sun Apr 2 2023

A stationary front sits across the Coastal Plains and the Rio
Grande. Dewpoint temperatures in the warm sector range from the 60s
to 70s while to the north in the 40s and 50s. Patchy to areas of fog
are forecast to develop across the Coastal Plains and over parts of
the southern Edwards Plateau/western Hill Country through mid
morning. Can`t rule out an isolated shower or two as well over same
areas.

Cloudy skies are forecast for much of the morning period with clouds
breaking from west to east this afternoon for partly cloudy skies.
Today`s highs range from the mid 80s across the Hill Country to low
90s across the Rio Grande.

An upper level short wave currently moving across Arizona and New
Mexico is forecast to push across central Texas this afternoon. At
the surface, a dry-line is forecast to push into the southern
Edwards Plateau while the warm front advances to north. All of these
ingredients bring the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms
across the Hill Country and vicinity. SPC Day One Convective Outlook
shows a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms (level 1 of 5) along
and east of Mountain Home to San Marcos to Giddings line and a
slight risk for severe thunderstorms (level 2 of 5) along and to the
north of a Fredericksburg to Dripping Springs to Elgin line. The main
weather hazards are large hail and damaging wind gusts. Can`t rule
out an isolated tornado with SRH around the 200 m2/s2 and effective
bulk shear of 50 to 60 knots. Storms quickly dissipate with the loss
of daytime heating and the upper level short wave moving away from
the local area. Overnight lows in the 60s.

A cloudy start over most areas for the work week with some breaking
in the afternoon. Highs are forecast to be in the 90s for most
locations and up to 101 degrees across the Rio Grande. Some strong
storms are forecast for the Hill Country in the afternoon with the
main weather hazard being large hail.

&&
 
D29D870B-4FDA-480E-B8E0-5EB62F322CF2.png
Mesoscale Discussion 0437
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0122 PM CDT Sun Apr 02 2023

Areas affected...Portions of the Texas Hill Country...into North
Texas and far southern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 021822Z - 022015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Supercells with a risk for all hazards may develop as
early as mid afternoon across portions of central and North TX, into
southern OK. A Tornado Watch will be issued soon to cover the
threat.

DISCUSSION...Across the southern Plains, afternoon WV imagery showed
a well-developed, compact vort max transiting across far west TX and
eastern NM. Ahead of the vort max, rapid low-level surface moisture
return was evident across central and north TX with dewpoints
surging from the low to mid 50s to mid 60s F over the last 1-2
hours. With rapid moistening and partial cloud breaks ongoing,
continued destabilization (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) is expected
through the afternoon. Very steep mid-level lapse rates (8.5-9 C/km)
from the 12z RAOBS will support rapid and robust updraft
development, potentially as early as 19-20z. Strong vertical shear
ahead of the vort max ( 45-60 kt 0-6km shear) will allow for storm
organization with a predominately supercellular mode.

A somewhat complex convective scenario may evolve this afternoon
with multiple areas of near simultaneous initiation possible. Cells
may initiate within the modifying warm sector near and to the
west/northwest of the Metroplex and far southwest OK. At the same
time, the dryline in west-central TX will likely initiate a few
supercells as it mixes eastward. Hodographs, while curved in the
lowest 1-2 km, are extended and mostly straight line aloft. This,
along with the favorable buoyancy and lapse rates strongly suggests
large and wind-driven damaging hail will be likely with any
sustained storms. A tornado risk (some significant) may also evolve
given the potential for discrete cells and 0-1km SRH of 150-200
m2/s2. A locally greater tornado risk may also evolve farther east
where low-level shear is expected to increase later this evening.
Given the potential for several supercells within a rapidly
modifying and favorable thermodynamic/kinematic environment, a
Tornado Watch will likely be issued this afternoon.

..Lyons/Hart.. 04/02/2023
Click to expand...
 
I really like the new MCDs also.

I pulled up the latest areal discussion from Ft. Worth from about 20 minutes ago and saw some stronger wording (which I bolded):

000
FXUS64 KFWD 021819
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
119 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2023

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today through Monday night/

Thunderstorms are expected to erupt across the area within the
next few hours in what could be a notable severe weather outbreak
producing large hail, damaging winds, and possibly a few
tornadoes. There are several areas where storms will likely
initiate, and the radar may look pretty messy by late afternoon.

Visible satellite and a recent sounding from TAMU show a cap is
still in place across much of the region, but values aren`t that
strong. The surface set-up includes a dryline currently extending
from about Childress to Sweetwater to Big Lake. Ahead of the
dryline, a warm front, marked by 60 dewpoints for this purpose,
extends from near Childress to Graham to southern Dallas County
to Athens. Both of these features will be focus areas for
convective development over the next few hours. Aloft, a shortwave
is now moving into the Texas Panhandle, spreading lift across
northwest Texas and western Oklahoma. Storms will likely develop
across our northwest near the dryline, near/along the warm front,
and/or in the warm sector in the next 1-3 hours as this lift
spreads across our area. Severe weather parameters marked by
little inhibition (weak capping), steep lapse rates, good shear
values, and some decent turning of the low level winds will
support an all-hazards threat with any strong or severe storms.
The mode of the storms will be a combination of isolated and
scattered supercells and clustered storms. Flash flooding is not
a large threat, but if multiple storms move over an area, isolated
areas of flooding may occur.

Once storms develop they will have an overall east or northeast
motion with them; however, right moving supercells may move
southeast. By midnight, the storms are expected to move into East
Texas and out of our coverage area. The dryline will remain
stalled across the region, likely near or just west of the I-35
corridor. This will result in overnight conditions ranging from
warm and muggy across our eastern counties, to a little cooler and
drier in our western counties. Monday morning temperatures will
range from the lower 50s to the upper 60s.
Click to expand...

@CheeselandSkies The surprise is mutual -- we went from a marginal to a slight to enhanced all in the span of about 24 hours. The small scale "make or break" days are sometimes this way, and one day I remember well that did this was 10/20/2019 which dropped the EF3 tornado over north Dallas.
 
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Storm headed toward Decatur and tracking toward Gainesville has golf ball sized hail already.

On another note, I think this is the first alert I've seen from the NWS in Ft Worth that has been issued in Spanish. Well done to try and get the message out to more people in the community.

 
Not that this has any actual significance to how storms will develop and mature, but today is none other than Palm Sunday - which is notorious for being the target of several devastating tornado outbreaks.

And while I'm not saying there will be a repeat, also of note is that the 10/20/19 Dallas EF3 came out of an ENH with a 10% tornado area.
 
TH2002 said:
Not that this has any actual significance to how storms will develop and mature, but today is none other than Palm Sunday - which is notorious for being the target of several devastating tornado outbreaks.

And while I'm not saying there will be a repeat, also of note is that the 10/20/19 Dallas EF3 came out of an ENH with a 10% tornado area.
Click to expand...
If you wanna keep going at the history aspect of today, April 2nd was also the date of the deadly F3 tornado that hit Dallas in 1957. 12/26/15 was also an ENH risk day.

Back in the now, various hailstorms ongoing with this first batch of severe weather. Fort Worth appears to be getting in on the action, and the warning for that cluster of storms is aimed in my general direction.
 
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