Severe WX Severe Wx Outbreak March 1st- 3rd, 2023 - Southern States, MS/OH/TN Valley

[Lake Martin EF4]

Yikes

Big, buuut not PDS lol.

 

[Former Member 1430]

Big, buuut not PDS lol.

Not yet… Let’s see about the next watch that is issued further east with the heating of the day

 

[UncleJuJu98]

I'm pretty sure a lot of these cells are low topped and if true. Hrrr shows convection pushing through all the way to North Central Alabama

 

[southmdwatcher]

Enhanced risk now includes 10 Hatched TOR for central KY/TN

 

[Tomcats Forever!]

Enhanced risk now includes 10 Hatched TOR for central KY/TN

That's interesting. Right here in Louisville it's 45 and super rainy. Of course, we've seen that before...

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

That's interesting. Right here in Louisville it's 45 and super rainy. Of course, we've seen that before...

Warm front pushing up that way

 

[southmdwatcher]

I assume the raging low level jet will bring a rather quick warmup to central and eastern Kentucky.

 

[keithGA]

12z HRRR STP. I give up.

 

[kcyalater]

i think the hrrr may be on crack

 

[Clancy]

12z HRRR STP. I give up.

Not much else to do than sit back, hope for the best and keep that closet door open.

 

[Richardjacks]

My take-
1. The threat time length isn't that long...in areas north, got to wait for the warm front, south areas, got to wait for the front to get closer then it will rush through.
Capping-one of the reason you have to wait for the front...again limiting time window.

2. Shear and cape balance- won't take much to get this off, but there will be a 1 to 2 hour window in central and east Alabama where this balance will be very close to producing...but again time is the limiting factor,

I don't think this will be anything significant for Alabama

 

[Clancy]

Nam 3km with UH tracks over NE AL and NW GA.

 

[Liberty4dayz]

So, folks with much more experience than myself (I'm usually a lurker)...

How's the threat for TN Valley? Just west and north of Chattanooga (Dunlap area)?

 

[Kragg]

12z HRRR does seem to be showing more distinct cells forming in front of the main line today. But as noted above it may be on the crack right now and cap + wind shear might mean those storms amount to a bunch of nothing.

 

[mdberry]

Updated Convective Outlook from SPC:

It was updated less than one hour ago, and the enhanced area was moved a little back to the west over North Alabama. Now includes Huntsville.

Also interesting to note that the 10% for tornadoes comes right to the Alabama state line.

 

[TheSuckZone]

Updated Convective Outlook from SPC:

It was updated less than one hour ago, and the Moderate area was moved a little back to the west over North Alabama. Now includes Huntsville.

Also interesting to note that the 10% for tornadoes comes right to the Alabama state line.

Wait, when did they go Moderate?

 

[mdberry]

Wait, when did they go Moderate?

Sorry, it was a typing error and I updated.

 

[KevinH]

12z HRRR STP. I give up.

Let’s not dismiss the *conditional* Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency potential that FFC mentioned. Things could go either way, and on days like today we will just have to WAIT and see. Potential is high, confidence is not.

(Also, admins: please dont ban me for using the word “Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency”, I am just saying what FFC said lol)

 

[treypops]

i think the hrrr may be on crack

Yeah, that latest run is stupid.

 

[GTWXAlum]

Sun has been popping out intermittently in Nashville this morning and the wind is *howling*