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  • Current Tropical Systems
    Melissa

Severe WX Severe Wx Outbreak March 1st- 3rd, 2023 - Southern States, MS/OH/TN Valley

JWard87 said:
Any chance I could ask into existence for this Tornado Warning just west of Waco to miss me please?

West side for me. Fall apart and just be a high wind event! ‍I’ll just cross them fingers for now.
Click to expand...
I think your good not a impressive velocity couplet. I think the damaging winds will be your main threat man
 
00z Shreveport sounding shows probably why warm sector has remained tame; very poor lapse rates account for weak updrafts, great turning in lower couple of kilometers but barely 40kt of shear then unidirectional aloft supports shallow weak mesos but the poor vertical acceleration with those lapse rates really couldn't get much going or sustain it. SPC notes stronger forcing arriving later could enhance ascent and negate some of the weak lapse rates but still not likely to be a particularly impressive warm sector
Screenshot_20230302-185830-758.png


00z Dallas sounding just prior to the line fwiw
Screenshot_20230302-185901-891.png
 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0700 PM CST THU MAR 02 2023

VALID 030100Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ARKLATEX...AND LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...

..SUMMARY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS
OR LARGER, SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM GUSTS TO 75 MPH, AND TORNADOES
WITH A FEW STRONG TORNADOES ARE LIKELY FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE
ARKLATEX THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.

..SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX/LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR EXTENDING
FROM WEST TEXAS SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. AN ASSOCIATED 90 TO
105 KNOT MID-LEVEL JET IS LOCATED IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND ACCELERATE SUBSTANTIALLY TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE JET, A
MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE FROM CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING FROM
NEAR THE RED RIVER EXTENDING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE TEXAS HILL
COUNTRY. MLCAPE AHEAD OF THE LINE IS ESTIMATED BY THE RAP NEAR 2000
J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 70 KNOTS AND 700-500 MB
LAPSE RATES NEAR 8.0 C/KM WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITHIN THE STRONGER PARTS OF THE LINE.
SUPERCELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. SWATHS OF
WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY WITH BOWING SEGMENTS. WINDS OF GREATER
THAN 70 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE STRONGER PARTS OF THE LINE.
A TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST WITH THE STRONGER SUPERCELLS
EMBEDDED IN THE LINE.

FURTHER TO THE EAST IN THE NORTHEAST TEXAS, SOUTHERN ARKANSAS, AND
FAR NORTHERN LOUISIANA, ISOLATED DISCRETE ROTATING STORMS ARE
ONGOING. THESE SUPERCELLS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THREAT FOR
TORNADOES, WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL. THE TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AS THE CELLS INTERACT WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR AND TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F. AS THE
MID-LEVEL JET APPROACHES LATER THIS EVENING, FORECAST SOUNDINGS
RAPIDLY INCREASE 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES INTO THE 500 TO
700 M2/S2 RANGE. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. THE FIRST ROUND OF DISCRETE CELLS WILL
LIKELY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS BECOME ELEVATED. A
SECOND ROUND OF DISCRETE CELLS COULD FORM AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE
IN NORTHEAST TEXAS AND MOVE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX LATE THIS EVENING.
IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR, A SUBSTANTIAL THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL BE
LIKELY. A FEW STRONG TORNADOES COULD DEVELOP ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AS THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL JETS BECOME
COUPLED LATER THIS EVENING.

THE SQUALL LINE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX FROM LATE THIS EVENING
INTO EARLY TONIGHT, APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AROUND 09Z.
AFTER THIS TIME, A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITHIN THE
LINE, AND WITH CELLS THAT FORM AHEAD OF THE LINE, FROM PARTS OF
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI NORTHWARD INTO FAR WESTERN TENNESSEE. WIND
DAMAGE, HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD.

..BROYLES.. 03/03/2023
Click to expand...

reading the third paragraph and then seeing the forecaster sig at the bottom

First Half GIF
 
Equus said:
00z Shreveport sounding shows probably why warm sector has remained tame; very poor lapse rates account for weak updrafts, great turning in lower couple of kilometers but barely 40kt of shear then unidirectional aloft supports shallow weak mesos but the poor vertical acceleration with those lapse rates really couldn't get much going or sustain it. SPC notes stronger forcing arriving later could enhance ascent and negate some of the weak lapse rates but still not likely to be a particularly impressive warm sector
Screenshot_20230302-185830-758.png


00z Dallas sounding just prior to the line fwiw
Screenshot_20230302-185901-891.png
Click to expand...
Yeah that’s one thing there was consensus on model wise this week was those LLLRs kept showing up on soundings
 
I checked the latest forecast discussion from BMX a little while ago. Timing has been updated, with storms entering west Alabama around 6am, and exiting east Alabama by around 2pm.
 
There;s a tornado-warned circulation near Serenada, TX, that could potentially threaten the KGRK radar site within the next half-hour:

kgrk_20230303_0118_SRV_0.5.png
 
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