Mesoscale Discussion 0232
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0510 PM CST Thu Mar 02 2023
Areas affected...northeast Texas...southeast Oklahoma...southern
Arkansas...northern Louisiana and northwest Mississippi
Concerning...Tornado Watch
55...
Valid 022310Z - 030115Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 55 continues.
SUMMARY...The risk for severe weather, including tornadoes,
continues across watch 55, and a new Tornado Watch will also likely
be needed farther east across southern Arkansas and northern
Louisiana by 01z.
DISCUSSION...Regional radar at 23z shows supercell thunderstorms,
occasionally exhibiting low-level rotation along the Red River west
of Hugo, OK and also across far northeast TX east of Longview. A
tornado was recently reported with an earlier storm in Hopkins
County, TX. These severe storms were located near and just south of
an east-west surface boundary that extended from north of the DFW
Metroplex across southern Arkansas.
Latest surface mesoanalysis and recent KSHV VAD data show a very
favorable kinematic environment for supercells, with ample
deep-layer shear in excess of 65 kts, and 0-3 km SRH of 400-500
m2/s2. Low-level flow will continue to strengthen and back as
intensifying surface low pressure moves northeast across east TX
this evening, further supporting a supercell threat with all severe
hazards possible, including the risk for a strong tornado.
Latest observational trends and short-term hi-res guidance suggests
that a new Tornado Watch will likely be needed prior to 00z.
livestormchasing.com
