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Severe WX Severe Weather Threats 1/21-1/22 2017 (Saturday - Sunday)

https://twitter.com/NWSBirmingham/status/823142995918659587
Severe storms LIKELY once again today for SE Central AL Counties. Troy, Eufaula, Auburn, Union Springs & Phenix City most affected. #alwx
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Tallahassee radar is down right now too, that makes three with the Valdosta GA and Macon GA radars out since yesterday. Really need to get (Valdosta and/or Tallahassee) up and running for this event.
 
Yeah, that High Risk is going to include my parents and every living member of my mom's family. Plus, dad is driving to a conference in Tifton today; I left him a voicemail to tell him to be careful but I don't know if it'll be enough to get him to cancel and stay home. This is...obviously pretty unusual for our part of the world, but we have had one violent tornado at least in our town's history (the 30 April 1953 tornado, which killed 18 people in Warner Robins and on Robins AFB).

One other big problem is that a lot of this area is going to have reduced radar coverage. Both Robins AFB (KJGX) and Moody AFB (KVAX) are down right now.
 
southmdwatcher said:
Tallahassee radar is down right now too, that makes three with the Valdosta GA and Macon GA radars out since yesterday. Really need to get (Valdosta and/or Tallahassee) up and running for this event.
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Ah, beat me to the punch. Yeah, the Warner Robins AFB radar I think is actually somewhere in the neighboring county (Twiggs), where there might have been a brief tornado yesterday afternoon. That area is obviously still covered by Atlanta, but the areas south of the Atlanta beam may not have much, if any, coverage, since I think without Valdosta and Tallahassee, the nearest radars are...Montgomery and Dothan? Not ideal.
 
Psalm 148:8 said:
Never seen a high risk area that far south....prayers for all in the path of severe wx today!
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Central Georgia at least has only had one: the very first one, in fact! The Carolinas outbreak of 28 March 1984. South Georgia, from what I can tell, has never had one.
 
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...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS SOUTH
GEORGIA...NORTH FLORIDA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
HIGH RISK AREA...FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO SOUTH CAROLINA...

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
MODERATE RISK AREA...FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO SOUTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
ENHANCED RISK AREA...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA IN THE SOUTHEAST STATES...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST...

...SUMMARY...
A severe thunderstorm and tornado outbreak is expected today across
north Florida and south Georgia, with the significant severe threat
also expected to extend southward into central Florida and
northeastward into South Carolina this evening.

***Significant tornado outbreak expected today across north Florida
and south Georgia***

...Synopsis...
An amplifying mid-upper trough over TX/OK this morning will continue
eastward to MS/AL by this afternoon. The initial synoptic cyclone
near Texarkana will likely be replaced by cyclogenesis today at the
triple point of the effective warm front across southern AL, and the
eastward-surging cold front/trough from LA/MS. This new cyclone
will deepen and move north-northeastward today across AL/GA in
association with the strong height falls/ascent within the exit
region of a 100-130 kt mid-upper jet. Likewise, very strong
deep-layer tropospheric flow is expected within the warm sector,
where boundary layer dewpoints in the 65-70 F range and a lingering
steep lapse rate plume will support moderate buoyancy. The net
result of these factors will be the potential for a significant
tornado episode today across north FL into south GA.

...AL/FL/GA today to the Carolinas this evening/tonight...
A broken band of severe storms that formed overnight persists this
morning across south GA. This convective band was associated with
low-level warm advection, as well as an ejecting midlevel trough
that is now over north GA and east TN. It is not clear if this
convection will weaken this morning, or if it will persist until new
thunderstorms begin to form farther to the west across south AL and
the FL Panhandle. Regardless the boundary should begin to move
northward by midday as cyclogenesis proceeds across AL. Likewise,
as the synoptic midlevel trough approaches from the west,
strengthening vertical shear is expected within the unstable warm
sector. Observational data confirm the most important aspects of
the thermodynamic and kinematic profiles, thus confidence is high in
the unusual combination of ingredients today. Forecast soundings
suggest the potential for MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg, with effective
bulk shear in excess of 70 kt, and effective SRH in excess of
300-400 m2/s2. The orientation of deep-layer shear vectors across
the cold front/trough will favor broken bands of tornadic
supercells.

Aside from the ongoing storms across south GA, the severe/tornado
risk will likely ramp up again later this morning across south AL
and the FL Panhandle along the residual rain-cooled boundary/warm
front, and then spread east-northeastward across north FL and GA
through the day. Long-tracked, strong tornadoes will be possible
with fast moving supercells, in addition to damaging winds and large
hail. The severe/tornado risk will spread northeastward into the
Carolinas this evening as the cyclone deepens and moves
northeastward to the southern Appalachians. There are some concerns
regarding the degree of near-surface destabilization with
northeastward extent into the Carolinas. However, very strong
low-level shear would favor maintenance of any supercells that
mature a bit farther southwest in the warm sector, with the risk for
tornadoes persisting after dark into SC and perhaps southern NC.
Farther south, the band of storms with the cold front will reach
south FL overnight, with a continued risk for damaging winds and a
couple of tornadoes.

...Central CA coast today...
Another strong shortwave trough will move inland today over CA. As
the left exit region of the mid-upper jet overspreads the coast and
near-surface flow becomes onshore with frontal passage, weak
surface-based buoyancy will develop. There will be some potential
for low-topped thunderstorms with isolated damaging gusts in this
regime.

..Thompson/Cohen.. 01/22/2017
 
First high risk outlook of record for southern Georgia or the Florida peninsula. Only the second January high risk of record. Other one was January 21, 1999 in Arkansas/ NW Mississippi. Ironically, that was the same week the Atlanta Falcons won the NFC Championship and advanced to the Super Bowl.......can history repeat? I certainly hope so....Rise Up Dirty Birds!
 
Man, I hate to say this kind of thing, but having so much of the warning apparatus out of commission heading into a potentially major severe event reminds me of a certain other day.
 
PerryW said:
First high risk outlook of record for southern Georgia or the Florida peninsula. Only the second January high risk of record. Other one was January 21, 1999 in Arkansas/ NW Mississippi. Ironically, that was the same week the Atlanta Falcons won the NFC Championship and advanced to the Super Bowl.......can history repeat? I certainly hope so....Rise Up Dirty Birds!
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I think a lot of this area was included on the one on 15 November 1989, which I only realized because someone tweeted the map.
 
Valdosta radar will most likely be down until Monday/Tuesday while Tallahassee will HOPEFULLY be back up before the bad stuff happens. Also, the last time there was a high risk before today was actually on June 3, 2014 for a progressive derecho (high risk for only one outlook).
 
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