Severe WX Severe Weather Threats 1/19-1/20 2017 (Thursday - Friday)

[Darklordsuperstorm]

Figured it was time to get a thread going for this weekend as it now appears that there will at least be some threat for the southeastern states. Looks like the only questions now are what areas will have the greatest risk and how significant the threat will be. I think the ceiling for this threat is pretty high. The 12z gfs is showing cape values in excess of 1000 j/k over much of Alabama at the at hr 150, and EHI already at 1-2 over a good portion of Alabama and we still have a few days left until this thing materializes.

 

[Richardjacks]

Maybe my most recent post should be moved here. I think the main question is how far north due to the possibility of coastal convection. I agree, impressive instability numbers for mid January showing days out on GFS.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Mods/admin can we please pin this thread. Thanks!

 

[Darklordsuperstorm]

Decided to change the title to include discussion for the Thursday/Friday system since these two will be coming in back to back. Thursday/Friday looks a lot less potent but still warrants discussion.

 

[Lori]

Decided to change the title to include discussion for the Thursday/Friday system since these two will be coming in back to back. Thursday/Friday looks a lot less potent but still warrants discussion.

Good idea!

 

[WesL]

No luck @Timhsv, the links you posted aren't public and are broken to the rest of us.

James Paul Dice has weighed in - http://birmingham.raycomweather.com/2017/01/first-alert-update-weekend-severe-threat-possible.html

 

[Darklordsuperstorm]

SPC decided to move the marginal risk northward for the Thursday system

 

[Lori]

Can y'all reiterate what we are expecting tomorrow??

 

[stormcentral]

Yeah im worried about thursday first? Anyone have NAM simulated radar?

 

[Richardjacks]

Can y'all reiterate what we are expecting tomorrow??

I think there will be a few brief spinnups, maybe something a little longer but not a widespread event

 

[stormcentral]

Im guessing runs will fluctuate? Now to wait for other model runs yay. Lol

 

[Lori]

I think there will be a few brief spinnups, maybe something a little longer but not a widespread event

Thanks! I know the weekend event could be worse but I just don't want everyone relaxing about Thursday's!!

 

[SASQUATCH]

For the 1/19 event, what I'm seeing is moist layers all throughout the atmosphere. That would limit the instability would it not?

 

[Jetstream]

Tornado warning for Smith and Simpson counties in Miss until 8:45 am

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Tornado warning for Smith and Simpson counties in Miss until 8:45 am

That's a nasty storm. Radar confirmed tornado!

 

[Jetstream]

Per Magee Fire.....damage reported. Trying to get specific area.

 

[JayF]

That's a nasty storm. Radar confirmed tornado!

Clearly defined Debris ball on that storm.

 

[Kory]

That cell is doing the most in a marginal environment....both thermodynamically and kinematically.

 

[Richardjacks]

That cell is doing the most in a marginal environment....both thermodynamically and kinematically.

yes, very impressive given the weak environment

 

[Kory]

Wow...it is really wrapped up!