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Severe Weather Threat - October 23rd-25th, 2022

Western Alabama should have been included in the slight risk with the first SPC outlook. But really, I think we are looking at an enhanced risk for eastern MS into western Alabama with strong tornado potential.
 
Tuesday: From SPC:
Damaging gusts will be the primary threat along the line, but strong
veering low-level profiles could result in line-embedded/QLCS
tornadoes as well. The highest tornado potential currently appears
to exist from south-central MS northeastward into west-central AL
where the best overlap between the enhanced low/mid-level flow and
upper 60s dewpoints occurs.Radar SPC.pngRadar spc tor.png
 
3km NAM at 4pm CDT tomorrow. Seeing a SigTor parameter this high in place in the fall is a little concerning. The Updraft Helicity swaths show quite a few areas over NW Alabama. Nothing like we'd see in spring, but as most on here know, we don't need the high parameters to make a dangerous day this time of year.

1666619266494.png

And a NAM sounding from 15miles NW of Tuscaloosa at 5pm CDT:
1666620131014.png
 
60% chance of a watch:

1666715812100.png

The MCD text mentions:

"The slow eastward movement of the line, coupled with diurnal
considerations, do appear favorable for a discrete supercell or two
later this afternoon, most notably where southern portions of the
line interact with the stronger MLCAPE. Though models differ on
storm coverage, any discrete supercells in this high shear
environment could result in an isolated strong tornado within a
relatively narrow zone."
 
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