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Severe Weather Threat - Nov. 2nd-5th, 2024

AJS said:
Think they’ll upgrade to a moderate? Seems like a pretty large 10% hatched area.
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I'm kind of cheating with my response here since they stayed at enhanced for the 1630z update, but I think enhanced is the right call today. Generally seems like there is too much forcing so things will tend to grow upscale and low-level lapse rates could be an issue, but any isolated supercells still would be trouble for those in the risk area.

Also, Trey just released his forecast discussion for today. Haven't watched yet, but he always does a great job of explaining things:

 
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 704
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1055 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2024

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Eastern Oklahoma
Northeast Texas

* Effective this Monday morning and evening from 1055 AM until
600 PM CST.

* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will intensify through the afternoon across
the watch area, with supercells and bowing lines capable of damaging
winds and tornadoes. A strong tornado or two is possible. ...Hart
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1730739591304.png

70/40
 
I try to be unbiased when looking at any forecast model since forecasting is so difficult but I cannot ever take Nadocast seriously as a forecast model. Every event with a 10% hatched from the SPC is 4/27/11 all over again.

I think Nadocast in it's current form is more harmful than helpful.
 
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TornadoFan17 said:
I try to be unbiased when looking at any forecast model since forecasting is so difficult but I cannot ever take Nadocast seriously as a forecast model. Every event with a 10% hatched from the SPC is 4/27/11 all over again.

I think Nadocast in it's current form is more harmful than helpful.
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It's not a forecast model, it's an experimental forecast model. Key differences.
 
Tanner said:
I definitely find today to be interesting. It has the looks of a pretty prolific day for all hazards, but I think people are going to be more focused on the impending election tomorrow as opposed to severe weather. I hope people are getting the messages in eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas particularly.
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If they're following any media for election info, they should get the WX message. And probably more than usual are tuned in because of that.
 
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