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Severe Weather Threat - Nov. 2nd-5th, 2024

UK_EF4 said:
10% tornado risk out now for today
View attachment 31313
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Not hard to see why, little to no convective inhibition, which would mean messy upscale growth, but weak forcing should help dampen that a bit along with dry mid levels.

Plenty of low level moisture and instability coinciding with healthy lapse rates throughout vertical profile will help plenty with low level stretching of updrafts and promote strong helicity entrainment.

There’s a bit of veering between 850-650mb, which makes the shear profile a bit awkward and might knock down the strength of the mesocyclones a bit, but tornadoes which form at the surface and up wouldn’t be affected by this.

Hodograph shows this exactly with the classic sickle shaped sounding indicating a heavily sheared environment in the low to mid levels.
1730652388352.png
 
Last EF2 tornado in Oklahoma in November was November 4th, 2022, last EF3 tornado in Oklahoma in November was November 22nd, 1983, and last EF4 tornado in Oklahoma in November was November 4th, 2022.
 
jiharris0220 said:
Not hard to see why, little to no convective inhibition, which would mean messy upscale growth, but weak forcing should help dampen that a bit along with dry mid levels.

Plenty of low level moisture and instability coinciding with healthy lapse rates throughout vertical profile will help plenty with low level stretching of updrafts and promote strong helicity entrainment.

There’s a bit of veering between 850-650mb, which makes the shear profile a bit awkward and might knock down the strength of the mesocyclones a bit, but tornadoes which form at the surface and up wouldn’t be affected by this.

Hodograph shows this exactly with the classic sickle shaped sounding indicating a heavily sheared environment in the low to mid levels.
View attachment 31314
Click to expand...
I'm in the 2% TOR risk today, but will keep an eye out.
Tomorrow has me a little more concerned
IMG_3557.pngIMG_3558.png
 
Radar loop from last night's tornado that went through Harrah.
 
Welp, time to do some data backups.
It's weird how severe weather leads me to pull out the external HDD and update stuff xD
 
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