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Severe Weather Threat - May 6, 2024

TH2002

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Terrifying video from Barnsdall.

88392d059e9109f74b6508a5913143bc.gif
 
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I don't have too much faith in those isolated cells. Too linear.

They don't look linear to me (down by the Frederick, OK NEXRAD). They look like incipient supercells do when a bunch of updrafts start running into each other and clustering together. This process takes a while and it looks like a mess on radar, then BOOM, monster tornadic supercell. Happened with Mayfield etc, Winterset IA 2022 and Rolling Fork and probably others in recent memory. Now whether they can take that final step remains to be seen...
 

Clancy

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They don't look linear to me (down by the Frederick, OK NEXRAD). They look like incipient supercells do when a bunch of updrafts start running into each other and clustering together. This process takes a while and it looks like a mess on radar, then BOOM, monster tornadic supercell. Happened with Mayfield etc, Winterset IA 2022 and Rolling Fork and probably others in recent memory. Now whether they can take that final step remains to be seen...
Yeah, not that this cell will do the same thing, but the Barnsdall storm went from looking "meh" to monstrous in just a scan or two.
 

TH2002

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Why? The high risk is not going to verify.
If you don't agree with TalkWeather's bust policy, take it up with the moderators. That's all I can say.

You may end up being 100% right, sure. But save your gloating for post-storm analysis, please.

edit: Should add that the Barnsdall tornado already happened, so calling this event a bust speaks for itself...
 
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Muwx

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They don't look linear to me (down by the Frederick, OK NEXRAD). They look like incipient supercells do when a bunch of updrafts start running into each other and clustering together. This process takes a while and it looks like a mess on radar, then BOOM, monster tornadic supercell. Happened with Mayfield etc, Winterset IA 2022 and Rolling Fork and probably others in recent memory. Now whether they can take that final step remains to be seen...
The only storm with even a severe thunderstorm warning is more of a bow echo than a supercell.
 

Evan

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One of the more perplexing events I've seen in awhile.

I've heard a number of theories posited, but none of them seem that convincing just yet. Potentially an amalgamation of more than one issue, as can be the case, but certainly not at all what I expected from today.

Barnsdall showed the potential out there, and I guess we always knew storm initiation to the south was a bit of a question mark, but now that we've got initiation it's just perplexing to have these results in this environment.

Shows how incredibly difficult forecasting it. I think a lot of people were ruined by the early 2010s outbreaks. This kind of frustration really reminds me of the pre-2011 types of events that seemed can't miss, and, then, missed for whatever reason.
 
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