Severe Weather Threat - May 6, 2024

[tennessee storm chaser]

The cap inversion is apparently stronger than indicated in lower atmosphere …wonder that changes things for wedothrest?

 

[Tanner]

1) The event is still not over, the most hostile environment was always gonna be near OKC. But 2) If the SPC didn't pull the trigger today, they'd been called stupid and negligent all across the Wx community, and for good reason - the parameters today are as high as you'll ever see them.

So regardless of what happens or doesn't happen, I think High was the right call.

No doubt the right call. Just frustrating for the reputation of the SPC and all the slandering we're going to see if this entire risk fails. If it did perform, then people get hurt. Absolutely a rock and a hard place.

 

[warneagle]

I guess some of the HRRR runs were kind of depicting a solution like this with a blob and a tail-end Charlie. Just doesn’t really add up given the parameter space.

 

[wx_guy]

Lapse rates...

You may be right. The low level lapse rates may be interfering with things to an extent, so far.

 

[JPWX]

I will never understand the wxtwitter kids and their ideas of a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency. It reminds me of the big bleep show over the Mayfield tornado.

 

[Tempestas Tonitrua]

The cap inversion is apparently stronger than indicated in lower atmosphere …wonder that changes things for wedothrest?

Storms went up. Even in the OWS with the cap gone. But the dryline storms ran into each other pretty quickly and the mergers weren’t exactly positive ones

 

[Clancy]

Additional Tornado Watch for KS/MO.

 

[nativetoalaska]

Additional Tornado Watch for KS/MO.

Right up near where I am...I think the QLCS threat for tomorrow morning should be interesting, even if I'm sleeping through it.

 

[TH2002]

I know we have a ways to go, and no hard feelings towards the SPC, but...

 

[Clancy]

Right up near where I am...I think the QLCS threat for tomorrow morning should be interesting, even if I'm sleeping through it.

Just make sure you've got a way to get warnings!

 

[Jacob]

So regardless of what happens or doesn't happen, I think High was the right call.

I have to disagree here. If nothing major tornado wise happens in the coming hours, it was objectively the wrong call.

It is painfully obvious why they went HIGH, and I think me and about everywhere else here would’ve done the same. It’ll be an interesting case study barring some storms going off after dark.

 

[BayouWeatherGeek]

Even if this event underperforms, it's important to recall the lesson we learned from the 2019 Beauregard/Smith Station tornado, it only takes one.

 

[Clancy]

Foraker storm certainly looking potent.

 

[joshoctober16]

lets at least give this a hour and 15 minutes before saying Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency.

 

[Clancy]

Important note.

 

[Maxis_s]

*steals your rotation*

 

[Tanner]

Tail end Charlie heading towards the OKC metro has an intense meso

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

I know we have a ways to go, and no hard feelings towards the SPC, but...
View attachment 26566

If this is a cap Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency then the SPC better get a damn gigantic blow dryer to melt the cap. SMH!

 

[Tanner]

lets at least give this a hour and 15 minutes before saying Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency.

I think you can give it several hours. We're far from done.

 

[Mike S]

Let's refrain from talking about other members please