Severe Weather Threat - May 6, 2024

[TornadoFan]

Arnett, OK storm just went severe warned.

 

[Clancy]

What do the shear and CAPE look like in that area?

Plenty of CAPE. Shear is pretty weak.

 

[Equus]

There's a shortwave traversing the Tennessee Valley, not a super potent environment but strong enough mid-level flow to get it done

 

[Tempestas Tonitrua]

We are in now cast mode but 19z HRRR paints a menacing picture through tonight. Even has one or two “tail end Charlie’s” firing south of the congealed line tonight in Oklahoma

 

[TH2002]

Plenty of CAPE. Shear is pretty weak.

View attachment 26437View attachment 26438

All eyes (including mine) are primarily on Oklahoma, and for good reason. But these sneaky TN setups beyond fascinate me. High shear, low CAPE setups in that region have multiple times ended in disaster (3/3/2020 and 12/9/2023 for example) but the parameters seem to be flip-flopped this time around. Curious how things will unfold over there.

 

[wx_guy]

We are in now cast mode but 19z HRRR paints a menacing picture through tonight. Even has one or two “tail end Charlie’s” firing south of the congealed line tonight in Oklahoma

I don't see any way for tonight not to be devastating for someone, somewhere. Hopefully we're all wrong.

 

[warneagle]

Yep that'd be those 2% supercells.

Rome and Carthage both delenda est? Rather ironic those two are located so close together.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

We should start picking up a bunch here in the next hour or two. Buckle up!

 

[TH2002]

Larned, KS cell may need a TOR soon

 

[warneagle]

We should start picking up a bunch here in the next hour or two. Buckle up!

Yeah, should have a few more storms going up along the dry line which would put them on course for the MDT area around 22-23z. More or less in line with the SPC forecast.

 

[jiharris0220]

 

[wx_guy]

Storm-Net Point Forecast for Sterling KS. I used to live here as a professor, so it holds a special place for me. If anyone wants a point forecast from Storm-Net (goes out 3 hours), let me know and I'll post it when I get the chance.

 

[wx_guy]

Oklahoma storms are starting to fire! One SVR already, if I could count correctly (to 1 lol)

 

[TH2002]

Yeah, Pawnee Rock could really use a TOR...

 

[Keldeo]

That developing cell around Crawford looks like its trying to hook already

 

[wx_guy]

Yeah, Pawnee Rock could really use a TOR...
View attachment 26441

Yeah, velocity looks like 130 GTG shear....far away from any good radar, but still...

 

[warneagle]

And now we get to experience the joys of radar coverage in western Oklahoma for a couple of hours.

 

[TH2002]

And now we get to experience the joys of radar coverage in western Oklahoma for a couple of hours.

Throw central Kansas into that equation too. Radar coverage in both areas is abysmal...

 

[Telstar]

Storm in Franklin tn might be winding up again

 

[KevinH]

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 655

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

www.spc.noaa.gov

Mesoscale Discussion 0655
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0335 PM CDT Mon May 06 2024

Areas affected...Northwest OK

Concerning...Tornado Watch 189...

Valid 062035Z - 062130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 189 continues.

SUMMARY...Initial supercell development across northwest Oklahoma will pose a primary near-term risk for large to very large hail. Tornado threat should increase rapidly towards 5 to 6 pm.

DISCUSSION...Most prominent convective development on the dryline south of KS has been in the Ellis county vicinity of northwest OK.

Additional cells should form farther south towards I-40 based on the agitated CU field noted in the southeast TX Panhandle. These cells will likely evolve into long-track supercells as they mature with a primary initial threat of large to very large hail. OK-Mesonet surface observations confirm the leading edge of upper 60s dew points are along a line from roughly Tipton to Lahoma. As these cells impinge on the greater low-level buoyancy and stronger low-level shear over central OK (per comparison of FDR/TLX/VNX VWP data), potential for tornadoes will increase substantially during the early evening. This scenario is supported by recent WoFS guidance.

..Grams.. 05/06/2024