PDS Tornado Watch is out with >95%/90% TOR probs.
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Severe Weather Threat - May 6, 2024
- Thread starter KevinH
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Already another cell popping over Bucklin, KS.
SmokeEater
Member
Jesus the wording...
Equus
Member
90/95 probs PDS out
- Moderator
- #565
I understand. When I saw that statement it's the first thing I thought of.
TornadoFan
Member
cincywx
Member
behind-the-scenes!
Clancy
Member
That's correct. There's also a little bit of VBV in there, but yeah, real life hodos will always look less smooth than forecasted ones.
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- #569
KevinH
Member
95/90 probs 
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 189
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
200 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southern Kansas
Western and Central Oklahoma
Western North Texas
* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 200 PM until 1100 PM CDT.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
* Primary threats include...
-Numerous tornadoes expected with a few intense tornadoes likely.
-Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 4 inches in diameter likely.
-Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely.
SUMMARY...
Explosive thunderstorm development is forecast this afternoon along and east of a north to south oriented dryline.
Given a very favorable environment for severe thunderstorms, intense supercells are expected to evolve. These storms are forecast to move east across the Watch area this afternoon through the late evening.
The possibility exists for regenerative supercell development over central Oklahoma this evening. Initially large to giant hail is forecast with the initial supercell activity before the tornado risk increases. Intense tornadoes are probable especially as the atmosphere becomes very favorable for tornadoes late this afternoon and continuing through the evening.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 105 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north northwest of HutchinsonKS to 50 miles south southeast of Fort Sill OK.
Storm Prediction Center PDS Tornado Watch 189
Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 189
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
200 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southern Kansas
Western and Central Oklahoma
Western North Texas
* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 200 PM until 1100 PM CDT.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
* Primary threats include...
-Numerous tornadoes expected with a few intense tornadoes likely.
-Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 4 inches in diameter likely.
-Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely.
SUMMARY...
Explosive thunderstorm development is forecast this afternoon along and east of a north to south oriented dryline.
Given a very favorable environment for severe thunderstorms, intense supercells are expected to evolve. These storms are forecast to move east across the Watch area this afternoon through the late evening.
The possibility exists for regenerative supercell development over central Oklahoma this evening. Initially large to giant hail is forecast with the initial supercell activity before the tornado risk increases. Intense tornadoes are probable especially as the atmosphere becomes very favorable for tornadoes late this afternoon and continuing through the evening.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 105 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north northwest of HutchinsonKS to 50 miles south southeast of Fort Sill OK.
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Tempestas Tonitrua
Member
My goodness. When is the last time it was 90/95%? 5/20/19?
cincywx
Member
Clancy
Member
My goodness, that summary.
southmdwatcher
Member
The last time I saw wording this strong was on that infamous late April day in 2011.
Kds86z
Member
“Regenerative supercell development” = training cells?
OHWX97
Member
Wasn't it 95/95% on May 20th?
Edit: Just looked it up. This is NOT current. This is the PDS tornado watch on 5/20/2019 with maxed out probabilities all across the board.
Last edited:
cincywx
Member
I believe one of the PDS watches on 3/31/23 was also 95/90
jiharris0220
Member
Feels like a full blown sauna out here.
This is the kind of environment that even if there are clouds, it wouldn’t matter.
This is the kind of environment that even if there are clouds, it wouldn’t matter.
TornadoFan
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I don't have an account on birdsite, but I can imagine there's already a fair amount of bust-posting going on over there...
