Severe Weather Threat - May 6, 2024

[Clancy]

 

[Casuarina Head]

Did CAMs originally forecast the erosion of the cap over southern KS by 18Z today, or is this ahead of schedule?

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[TH2002]

If I lived in Oklahoma right now:

 

[SmokeEater]

From OUN: Something interesting to note on storm mode: HRRR/RAP bulk shear vectors (0-6km) are predominantly perpendicular to the dryline into the evening for areas generally along/south of I-40 with vectors more parallel across northern Oklahoma. This would favor more of a linear storm mode up north and discrete mode across central.

 

[172556]

Looks like storms going up directly over DDC.

 

[Tanner]

This cell just blew up within the last few radar scans in southern Kansas...here we go.

 

[aujerm]

I assume the hodograph having a "squiggly" nature like that is the product of an actual weather balloon launch versus a forecast?

 

[172556]

Storm over DDC has gone from non-existent to SVR in 13 minutes.

 

[TornadoFan]

This cell just blew up within the last few radar scans in southern Kansas...here we go.

Already severe warned.

 

[Maxis_s]

TORR in South Dakota. Ok then...

 

[Casuarina Head]

From OUN: Something interesting to note on storm mode: HRRR/RAP bulk shear vectors (0-6km) are predominantly perpendicular to the dryline into the evening for areas generally along/south of I-40 with vectors more parallel across northern Oklahoma. This would favor more of a linear storm mode up north and discrete mode across central.

North of I-40 would cover most, or at least more than half, of the HIGH-Risk area. I though discrete mode was originally favoured in north-central OK? At the very least, the northern extent of the 30% will need to be trimmed.

 

[atrainguy]

Already a tornado warning near the northern limit of the marginal zone and cells rapidly popping up in Kansas - foreshadowing for later?

 

[SmokeEater]

TOG SD.

 

[cincywx]

TOG SD.

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM MDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN HARDING AND NORTHEASTERN BUTTE COUNTIES...

At 1256 PM MDT, a confirmed tornado was located 5 miles east of Dears
Ears Butte, or 44 miles northeast of Belle Fourche, moving north at
30 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

 

[SmokeEater]

TOG SD.

Whopping 82 people live in the warning.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[SmokeEater]

PDS watch about to be issued for most of OUN CWA until 11pm.

 

[Jacob]

Alright, who had Mud Butte seeing the first tornado today.

 

[southmdwatcher]

PDS Tornado Watch is officially issued now....2pm to 11pm CDT