Severe Weather Threat - May 6, 2024

[TornadoFan]

Meaning?

 

[Casuarina Head]

At this point, 45, 30, 60, ...it's just splitting hairs -- a high-end tornado threat is possible. The exact category assigned at this point is somewhat subjective to the SPC forecasters. 45 could happen, but if not, a 30 is still a very serious high-end threat, given the models and trends today.

I am going to earn a lot of flak for this, but Jeff Duda may not be totally off base. Storms are developing earlier than expected in KS, and instability is higher than projected in OK, so if storms develop too early over the 30% area, they could congeal into a semi-discrete mode before the best kinematics arrive around sunset, after which the nocturnal inversion will be an issue if discrete activity is not already well established. I think that the failure of the 30% TOR probabilities may well be a potentiality whose likelihood is being underestimated. If so, that would be a very good thing, and the SPC/NWS OUN deserve credit for highlighting uncertainty, not to mention the fairly limited coverage of supercells, so the media will be too blame if the pendulum swings too far toward the “hype” side. At any rate, I hope that people are taking all the necessary precautions and will stay safe! The wind and hail alone deserve the utmost consideration.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Meaning?

A target area for storm initiation possibly

 

[Tempestas Tonitrua]

Good lord. Everyone, I want to apologize for bringing up Jeff Duda’s point on another forum. I forgot it would signal for another user to start.

 

[TH2002]

Given current trends, does this still seem a possibility? If storms initiate too early in OK they could go quasi-linear before the best forcing arrives.

If I'm not mistaken the SPC said it's entirely dependent on confidence of storm coverage, which OUN is leaning towards the major tornado threat coming from very isolated supercells. Though they did mention more extensive coveage (and a corresponding 40% hatch) would be very much possible. But like @wx_guy said it's basically splitting hairs.

 

[NorthGaWeather]

If i got a check every time Jeff Duda nit-picked an upcoming event to the point where it sounds like a bust is imminent, I’d be a rich man. I respect him, but I’ve learned to tune him out over the years.

Most recently he did it right before Sulphur-Marietta. It’s what he does.

I was just about to post this exact statement. Smart man, but he would nit-pick 4/27/11.

 

[brianc33710]

Those are now automatically decided based on the SPC tornado probabilities. A sigtor-driven MDT automatically puts it at 7-8. A sigtor-driven HIGH automatically puts it at 9, and then they may make it 10 if the tornado probability goes above 30%.

Yeah I think 10 may be reserved for the 45% corridors, with 9 for "regular" high risks. I say that after today noticing "extreme" wasn't used on the tornado probably map, just "high." On 27 Apr 11 TWC used 10 with 45%. If SPC goes with 45 later then TWC may go to Torcon 10.

 

[Maxis_s]

I am going to earn a lot of flak for this, but Jeff Duda may not be totally off base. Storms are developing earlier than expected in KS, and instability is higher than projected in OK, so if storms develop too early over the 30% area, they could congeal into a semi-discrete mode before the best kinematics arrive around sunset, after which the nocturnal inversion will be an issue if discrete activity is not already well established. I think that the failure of the 30% TOR probabilities may well be a potentiality whose likelihood is being underestimated. If so, that would be a very good thing, and the SPC/NWS OUN deserve credit for highlighting uncertainty, not to mention the fairly limited coverage of supercells, so the media will be too blame if the pendulum swings too far toward the “hype” side. At any rate, I hope that people are taking all the necessary precautions and will stay safe! The wind and hail alone deserve the utmost consideration.

Not happening.

 

[Keldeo]

Already mid 70s mostly everywhere

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Yup

 

[Maxis_s]

To the experts here, do you think an upgrade to a 45% tornado risk is possible? I know it's been asked a lot but I don't know personally.
I'm thinking it probably won't, because there's most likely too little space to fit a 45% in the 30%, even if it expands a bit, but I could be completely wrong.

 

[jiharris0220]

To the experts here, do you think an upgrade to a 45% tornado risk is possible? I know it's been asked a lot but I don't know personally.
I'm thinking it probably won't, because there's most likely too little space to fit a 45% in the 30%, even if it expands a bit, but I could be completely wrong.

I mean, it truly matters as much as a piece of dirt lying on the road.

 

[KevinH]

This is why I stopped watching TWC. I can’t take them seriously.

EDIT: This is their “forecast” for OKC tonight.

 

[warneagle]

I am going to earn a lot of flak for this, but Jeff Duda may not be totally off base. Storms are developing earlier than expected in KS, and instability is higher than projected in OK, so if storms develop too early over the 30% area, they could congeal into a semi-discrete mode before the best kinematics arrive around sunset, after which the nocturnal inversion will be an issue if discrete activity is not already well established. I think that the failure of the 30% TOR probabilities may well be a potentiality whose likelihood is being underestimated. If so, that would be a very good thing, and the SPC/NWS OUN deserve credit for highlighting uncertainty, not to mention the fairly limited coverage of supercells, so the media will be too blame if the pendulum swings too far toward the “hype” side. At any rate, I hope that people are taking all the necessary precautions and will stay safe! The wind and hail alone deserve the utmost consideration.

The CAMs have consistently shown development around noon in KS/NE and the SPC has mentioned it in every outlook. This is totally in line with the previously forecast evolution of the system.

The recent OUN and upstream sounding data shows a cap still in place that will take a few more hours to erode. There’s really nothing in the current model or observation data to suggest excessive storm coverage/interactions as a failure mode at this point.

 

[warneagle]

And there we go. Seems prudent to me.

 

[TornadoFan17]

I mean, it truly matters as much as a piece of dirt lying on the road.

In terms of real-life application, yes. But for those interested in meteorological history, the difference between a 30 and a 45 is a big deal.

Granted, that's not a huge community, but it's not completely useless.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

RTMA compared to hrrr forecasts are off by almost 1000j in areas. Instability is a lot more robust than forecasted.

 

[JBishopwx]

Norman mentioned in the chat that the 18z balloon launched showed no cap with zero MLCIN.

 

[Maxis_s]

Norman mentioned in the chat that the 18z balloon launched showed no cap with zero MLCIN.

Might be an error, this shows some capping in place still.

 

[warneagle]

Might be an error, this shows some capping in place still.

Yeah I was fixing to say, DDC doesn’t have any capping left but it’s still pretty substantial on the OUN sounding.