Severe Weather Threat - May 6, 2024

[warneagle]

Jeez...you don't see local area emergencies for upcoming severe weather very often.

Makes sense to me, give them as much lead time as possible rather than having to scramble into place later.

 

[nativetoalaska]

Jeez...you don't see local area emergencies for upcoming severe weather very often.

But it's good that Oklahoma is getting hours of lead time.

 

[warneagle]

Couple of SVR warnings with the activity up in KS/NE

 

[Clancy]

Jeez...you don't see local area emergencies for upcoming severe weather very often.

Not sure I've ever seen one of these for a severe weather event before, except for maybe during a snowstorm once?

 

[SmokeEater]

PDS tor watch will be issued in the next 30 minutes or so.

 

[Casuarina Head]

Have to imagine there may be a 45 hatch at 20z if trends continue toward good confidence in coverage and location

Given current trends, does this still seem a possibility? If storms initiate too early in OK they could go quasi-linear before the best forcing arrives.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Hrrr now showing 5000j of scape into parts of Oklahoma later

 

[wx_guy]

Given current trends, does this still seem a possibility? If storms initiate too early in OK they could go quasi-linear before the best forcing arrives.

At this point, 45, 30, 60, ...it's just splitting hairs -- a high-end tornado threat is possible. The exact category assigned at this point is somewhat subjective to the SPC forecasters. 45 could happen, but if not, a 30 is still a very serious high-end threat, given the models and trends today.

 

[nativetoalaska]

Hrrr now showing 5000j of scape into parts of Oklahoma later

Yikes. What's the timeframe for that?

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[Kds86z]

PDS tor watch will be issued in the next 30 minutes or so.

A bit early

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Yikes. What's the timeframe for that?

Around 5-7 pm it seems, not 100% sure

 

[SmokeEater]

I know some aren't a fan of it, but when was the last torcon of 9? March 31, 2023?

 

[UncleJuJu98]

 

[warneagle]

A bit early

I think the idea is to give a long lead time, especially given that this watch is just for the areas west of I-35.

 

[warneagle]

I know some aren't a fan of it, but when was the last torcon of 9? March 31, 2023?

They basically just multiply the SPC probabilities by two to make them more sensational so probably whenever the last 45% was. I honestly don’t pay any attention to it because it doesn’t add any value to the publicly available info.

 

[SmokeEater]

I think the idea is to give a long lead time, especially given that this watch is just for the areas west of I-35.

Yea was gonna say, that's 100% why, long lead time watch.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

I know some aren't a fan of it, but when was the last torcon of 9? March 31, 2023?

I think it was one of the march 2021 Alabama high risk days was the last 45%

 

[Fred Gossage]

I know some aren't a fan of it, but when was the last torcon of 9? March 31, 2023?

Those are now automatically decided based on the SPC tornado probabilities. A sigtor-driven MDT automatically puts it at 7-8. A sigtor-driven HIGH automatically puts it at 9, and then they may make it 10 if the tornado probability goes above 30%.

 

[Clancy]

I think it was one of the march 2021 Alabama high risk days was the last 45%

That would've been the 17th, I believe.