Severe Weather Threat - May 6, 2024

[Maxis_s]

Snippet from a discussion just posted by OUN, they expect supercells throughout the event.

EVERY storm will be equally capable of producing dangerous tornadoes and destructive hail. Many (most?) people will NOT see any storms at all! We are only expecting a small number of storms. We could have 2-3, we could have 10. The thing to remember is if you see a storm near you, assume it's a dangerous storm. We have not experienced a day like this in quite some time. We expect storms to become supercells quickly after they form, and they should remain supercells through the event. We do not expect them to form into a squall line or cluster. The potential for tornadoes will INCREASE after dark, so do not let your guard down. Wind shear - which is already plenty for tornadoes this afternoon - will only become more favorable after dark. This is important! Clouds will NOT prevent storms from forming today or lessen their severity. The cap (a layer of warm air above the surface) will NOT prevent storms from forming today.

Good god this is some extreme wording.

 

[wx_guy]

Just an intriguing caveat....the HazCast AI machine-learning model actually has the Kansas City area with the highest tor chances...(the following frames move eastward, but the coloration remains the same through about 03Z.)

 

[MoonBaby]

 

[jiharris0220]

Well that’s a different take.

 

[MoonBaby]

I remember on April 27 2011 (I am absolutely not comparing this to that I assure you), one of the first things James Spann said when breaking in for long form coverage was “conditions are as strong as they are ever going to be today”.
It makes me uncomfortable that I have already read several people say that verbatim on twitter. Again I’m not comparing the two events, it’s just a sentence that now makes me nauseous when I hear it/see it.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[jiharris0220]

They went ahead and said it.

 

[SmokeEater]

I remember on April 27 2011 (I am absolutely not comparing this to that I assure you), one of the first things James Spann said when breaking in for long form coverage was “conditions are as strong as they are ever going to be today”.
It makes me uncomfortable that I have already ready several people say that verbatim on twitter. Again I’m not comparing the two events, it’s just a sentence that now makes me nauseous when I hear it.

He also said those same words as OUN is stressing a little while after the Birmingham tornado... If you have a storm near you tonight, assume there's a tornado approaching..

 

[TornadoFan]

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1102 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024

Valid 061630Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
A regional outbreak of severe weather with multiple intense (EF3+),
long-tracked tornadoes, as well as very large hail and severe
thunderstorm gusts, is expected over parts of the south-central
Plains from this afternoon through evening.

 

[MoonBaby]

He also said those same words as OUN is stressing a little while after the Birmingham tornado... If you have a storm near you tonight, assume there's a tornado approaching..

Yes! The wording being used is giving me flashbacks! (Again please don’t think I’m comparing)

 

[TornadoFan]

The high risk has been extended to the south slightly as of the 1630Z update.

 

[SmokeEater]

Yes! The wording being used is giving me flashbacks! (Again please don’t think I’m comparing)

Not at all, you're good. Just very eerie hearing the same type of wording.

 

[SmokeEater]

Jesus...

Several discrete supercells are expected to traverse across a large portion of the Moderate and High-Risk equivalent tornado probabilities. Tornadoes, some of which can be intense( EF3+), are forecast late this afternoon and well into the evening. Some model guidance shows regenerative supercell development across central OK this evening. Have extended the High Risk slightlyf arther south to account for this possibility.

 

[wx_guy]

Looks like first TOR watch of the day coming for Kansas/Nebraska shortly.

 

[Equus]

Have to imagine there may be a 45 hatch at 20z if trends continue toward good confidence in coverage and location

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Expansion of high risk

 

[Muwx]

Anxiously awaiting Andy's latest thoughts.

 

[SmokeEater]

Meso out, tornado watch coming for C NE and NC KS.

 

[Brice W]

Looks like first TOR watch of the day coming for Kansas/Nebraska shortly.

Very well could tornado in 45 minutes.

 

[warneagle]

Have to imagine there may be a 45 hatch at 20z if trends continue toward good confidence in coverage and location

Yeah there’s been a trend toward more coverage which might justify an increase, guess we’ll see what the next couple of CAM runs think.

Also I noticed in Trey’s video that one of the soundings popped 5/20/57 at Topeka as an analog, which was the day of the Ruskin Heights F5.