Clancy
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CAPE is already increasing at a steady rate thus far, and it's barely 10 AM in OK. +1500 in the last 3 hours.
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Severe Weather Threat - May 6, 2024
- Thread starter KevinH
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CAPE is already increasing at a steady rate thus far, and it's barely 10 AM in OK. +1500 in the last 3 hours.
Kds86z
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Good grief
wx_guy
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The 12z HREF probability of tornado within 25 miles is just out. I have overlayed the 13z SPC outlook -- they might consider expanding it north and east in the coming updates.
Not sure what can make this a complete bust honestly. No fires, no exceptional stout cap(that I know of) seems like we’re going to have a long waiting game to see what truly happens.Honestly, I want this to be a bust. Oklahoma just had EF4 a couple weeks ago.
I also hate how there's a couple of political weenies and a growing number of possible bots muddying up the #okwx hashtag.
Clancy
Member
Oh yeah, bird site is almost unusable at this point (for like, 10,000 reasons).Honestly, I want this to be a bust. Oklahoma just had EF4 a couple weeks ago.
I also hate how there's a couple of political weenies and a growing number of possible bots muddying up the #okwx hashtag.
Clancy
Member
Have heard several folks say similar things, that while there are certainly some things that could limit some of the intensity, a lot of the typical failure modes just aren't there like they are for most setups.
Clancy
Member
Trey's (much anticipated) video is out for this event.
Kds86z
Member
Beat me to it!
Agreed, also seeing models going towards a more semi discrete mode for KS, recipe for disaster seems to be building without any big limit.
Equus
Member
Working til 4 or 430 so won't be able to provide much input or save many loops til later, I trust everyone else is on top of this lol, looking quite ominous
cincywx
Member
Looks like it also depicts these storms congealing into a line fairly quickly, however. The discrete convection shown here on the 14z run would pose an initial threat for tornadoes, but it's worth noting that the low-level shear & low-level SRH are currently depicted to be significantly lower here compared to areas eastward towards OKC. As the line moves eastward on the 14z run, it runs into the consistently-modeled eye-popping environment (one that is ripe with spin). A sustainable tail-end charlie would be a serious concern in this scenario.
That said, this is one model solution. The 15z suite may come in looking similar or different, but at this point with the hours continuing to tick down, I would start to transition more towards observations and less towards hourly model output.
Clancy
Member
One concern I've got is the sort of west-to-east supercell trail that forms on the southern end of the convection, as modelled by HRRR, and to a lesser extent, some of the other CAMs. If that were to occur, you could end up with a situation a bit like that Marietta-Sulphur tornado corridor we had a few weeks ago, except it'll be smack-dab in the middle of the OKC metro instead.
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cincywx
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wx_guy
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The 15z mesoanalysis (radar via the HRRR) is predicting initiation occurring about 4 PM CDT in discrete supercells initially. And of course the hodographs look scary.
wx_guy
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Gonna destabilize rapidly...already seeing over 3500 CAPE in some areas, and it's only mid-morning.
SmokeEater
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Snippet from a discussion just posted by OUN, they expect supercells throughout the event.
EVERY storm will be equally capable of producing dangerous tornadoes and destructive hail. Many (most?) people will NOT see any storms at all! We are only expecting a small number of storms. We could have 2-3, we could have 10. The thing to remember is if you see a storm near you, assume it's a dangerous storm. We have not experienced a day like this in quite some time. We expect storms to become supercells quickly after they form, and they should remain supercells through the event. We do not expect them to form into a squall line or cluster. The potential for tornadoes will INCREASE after dark, so do not let your guard down. Wind shear - which is already plenty for tornadoes this afternoon - will only become more favorable after dark. This is important! Clouds will NOT prevent storms from forming today or lessen their severity. The cap (a layer of warm air above the surface) will NOT prevent storms from forming today.
EVERY storm will be equally capable of producing dangerous tornadoes and destructive hail. Many (most?) people will NOT see any storms at all! We are only expecting a small number of storms. We could have 2-3, we could have 10. The thing to remember is if you see a storm near you, assume it's a dangerous storm. We have not experienced a day like this in quite some time. We expect storms to become supercells quickly after they form, and they should remain supercells through the event. We do not expect them to form into a squall line or cluster. The potential for tornadoes will INCREASE after dark, so do not let your guard down. Wind shear - which is already plenty for tornadoes this afternoon - will only become more favorable after dark. This is important! Clouds will NOT prevent storms from forming today or lessen their severity. The cap (a layer of warm air above the surface) will NOT prevent storms from forming today.
TornadoFan
Member
Geez, they're not holding back.
