Severe Weather Threat - May 6, 2024

[KevinH]

There’s really not much for me to add other than let’s hope this busts cataclysmicly, and to the people who are excited for this event (no one on here thankfully) to kindly get a more productive hobby.

Just wanted to point out that SOME people are excited for days like this so they can study the meteorology associated with the storms that develop.

Let’s not assume that everyone who is excited about today has morbid intentions

 

[KevinH]

Considering the main event won't be until after dark this evening, there's still a LOT of time for changes to the forecast, for better or for worse.

I JUST saw this on TV.

Did not know about the overnight threat. Horrible.

 

[wx_guy]

I JUST saw this on TV.

Did not know about the overnight threat. Horrible.

Yeah, I'm afraid (per Evan's X post you quoted) that so many are going to say it's a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency and be complacent by the time the actual event gets going.

 

[Clancy]

Yeah, I'm afraid (per Evan's X post you quoted) that so many are going to say it's a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency and be complacent by the time the actual event gets going.

There'll be a WX Twitter Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency party at about 1:30 PM, and tornadoes once the caffeine-fueled go to bed thinking the threat is over.

 

[cincywx]

There'll be a WX Twitter Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency party at about 1:30 PM, and tornadoes once the caffeine-fueled go to bed thinking the threat is over.

In other words, just another day in May.

 

[KevinH]

Yeah, I'm afraid (per Evan's X post you quoted) that so many are going to say it's a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency and be complacent by the time the actual event gets going.

Yeah that seems to happen with most events. I was just going to comment that anyone who uses the b word in this thread before the event is over should be banned lol

Part of me hopes that those people (who obviously don’t know much about meteorology) are taught a lesson.

Predicting the weather is not an exact science and can be much more difficult than most people realize.

 

[KevinH]

There'll be a WX Twitter Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency party at about 1:30 PM, and tornadoes once the caffeine-fueled go to bed thinking the threat is over.

I wonder how many of those people live in the threat area?

 

[KevinH]

May 3, 1999

This tweet about analogs from Elizabeth at SPC was just quoted on Fox Weather:

 

[Brice W]

I wonder how many of those people live in the threat area?

I can’t imagine living in Oklahoma City and the surroundings cities. Having big tornado threats days that are MDT or High risk days occurring a handful of years would keep me uneasy the whole spring season. Kudos to those people.

 

[Kds86z]

Reason they didn’t use the violent word in high risk?

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Not good mate.. big uptrend in instability in the last 24 hours.

 

[cincywx]

12z observed data from norman

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Maxis_s]

I already feel sick to my stomach.

 

[wx_guy]

Reason they didn’t use the violent word in high risk?

I mean...likely because that word (As you know, since you mentioned it) carries a lot of weight and there's still 8-12 hours before the event, so they don't want to throw around words that may cause panic unnecessarily.

 

[jiharris0220]

View attachment 26387

12z observed data from norman

Hardly a cap to speak of with a sickle shaped hodo. Obviously the unstable airmass has yet to arrive, but will do so dramatically.

 

[JPWX]

First High Risk nationwide since March 31st, 2023. May 20th 2019 was last May High Risk for Oklahoma and before that it May 18th, 2017 and May 24th, 2011. 2019 was the most recent one for Oklahoma before today.

 

[warneagle]

First High Risk nationwide since March 31st, 2023. Amory MS EF3 tornado and Rolling Fork. May 20th 2019 was last May High Risk for Oklahoma and before that it May 18th, 2017 and May 24th, 2011. 2019 was the most recent one for Oklahoma before today.

Rolling Fork was a week before on March 24, 2023

 

[warneagle]

Hardly a cap to speak of with a sickle shaped hodo. Obviously the unstable airmass has yet to arrive, but will do so dramatically.

You can see the kind of airmass we’re gonna be dealing with in the high risk area quite well on the 12z FWD sounding.

 

[JPWX]

Rolling Fork was a week before on March 24, 2023

Ah yeah. Got confused.