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Severe Weather Threat - May 6, 2024
- Thread starter KevinH
- Start date
Kds86z
Member
So we looking at multiple cyclic supercells?
Yes, cyclic/long-track. It's just a question of how many that's the deciding factor between upper-end MDT Risk and upgrade to HIGH Risk.
Shakespeare 2016
Member
I live near Wichita so I must be in the higher end environment. It will be warm and muggy with temperatures in the low to upper 70s and dewpoints in the low/mid to upper 60s.
Edit
This is for my area when the storms are occurring.
Temp Range...69.0°F to 75.0°F
Dew Range...62.0°F to 67.0°F
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Kds86z
Member
I remember 5/20/19. Hard to believe it’s been 4 years. I forget why that setup failed. Hopefully nothing close to May 3.
NorthGaWeather
Member
I think we’ll get a high on one of the next two outlooks. I think Broyles is on the 13z so maybe he’ll give it to everyone.
Shakespeare 2016
Member
It will be five years since 5/20/19 on May 20th.
Kolle
Member
Kds86z
Member
jiharris0220
Member
The thing about may 20, 2019 was that it was really only the hrrr that was forecasting a tornado apocalypse. But even that model went with a messy storm mode the day before.
I remember people were really having their doubts about that day as most other models had a sloppy storm mode with quick linear growth in western Oklahoma with little pre frontal supercells.
And of course the rest is history on what happened, can’t say the same for today though other than the possibility of lack of storms.
I remember people were really having their doubts about that day as most other models had a sloppy storm mode with quick linear growth in western Oklahoma with little pre frontal supercells.
And of course the rest is history on what happened, can’t say the same for today though other than the possibility of lack of storms.
06z HRRR is deadly. That is all to say about it. I am really feeling a sense of dread for this one.
jiharris0220
Member
Even the 06z linear happy nam shows discrete development now in southern Oklahoma.
jiharris0220
Member
Hot of the press nadocast with an expanded 45% hatched, really underlining the extreme potential in place in southern Oklahoma.
Based on everything I've seen overnight and early this morning, if I was the SPC forecaster on desk for the 13z outlook this morning, these are the slight expansions and the risk upgrade I would be making:
Consistent signal for violence in north-central Oklahoma starting around 4-5pm and then ramping up after 6-7pm (meaning the updrafts also get rooted at the sfc before the nocturnal inversion develops). Also seeing a concerning signal for a tail-end charlie on the southern side of the Kansas QLCS that may be a supercell with violent tornado potential on the southern end.... near or south of the Wichita metro, and probably starting a bit sooner than the OK threat.
Very deeply and gravely concerned by the consistent HRRR depiction of that lead supercell in the OK cluster putting down a mesoscale boundary for the following long-track supercells to ride along in a synoptic background environment that's already very supportive of long-lived EF4+ tornadoes...
Consistent signal for violence in north-central Oklahoma starting around 4-5pm and then ramping up after 6-7pm (meaning the updrafts also get rooted at the sfc before the nocturnal inversion develops). Also seeing a concerning signal for a tail-end charlie on the southern side of the Kansas QLCS that may be a supercell with violent tornado potential on the southern end.... near or south of the Wichita metro, and probably starting a bit sooner than the OK threat.
Very deeply and gravely concerned by the consistent HRRR depiction of that lead supercell in the OK cluster putting down a mesoscale boundary for the following long-track supercells to ride along in a synoptic background environment that's already very supportive of long-lived EF4+ tornadoes...
Casuarina Head
Member
The eastern extent of the 15/30% seems to have contracted a bit vs. 00Z. Is there a reason for this? What about overnight activity? @Fred Gossage
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Shakespeare 2016
Member
Do you think Wichita could end up in a high risk?
I don't pay attention to Nadocast, what drives it, how it behaves, what it had for dinner last night, none of the things.
The threat for long-track intense supercells will continue into the late evening, but they will eventually cluster/line out at some point over in eastern Oklahoma as they interact with each other more and more. The long-track violent tornado threat definitely continues deep into the evening though.
It's possible but those decisions are all about confidence, and unless there is a trend toward storm mode staying more discrete for longer in south central Kansas, the higher confidence in discrete long-track supercells is on the Oklahoma side of the state line. That doesn't mean there can't be a long-track EF4+ tornado in southern Kansas though, even if it stays Moderate there.
I should mention that up into south central to southeast Kansas, even if the cells on the southern end of the convective band are a bit clustery, there could still be multiple strong to potentially violent tornadoes, similar to what happened in south central Oklahoma back on the late evening of April 27th. The cleaner and fully discrete "classic outbreak" type supercells are more likely to be in north to central Oklahoma (and we'll watch the cap for farther southwest for a loner), but that doesn't negate possibly having multiple strong to even violent tornadoes a few counties farther north of there on the Kansas side if the cells are a bit clustered.
