Severe Weather Threat May 20-21, 2025

[Equus]

Most modeling has surface flow somewhat veered, and only veering further through the day as the front nears with the surface low weakening, so it feels like we will need backing from outflow boundaries or other surface features to get really robust low level mesocyclones in any supercells that try to form; SW/SSW surface winds support quick upscale growth but really elongate and straighten the hodographs to a degree that it feels like hail might be a threat even in mixed mode clusters

 

[Kolle]

Welcome to the hurry up and wait portion of today's weather system.

 

[kcyalater]

15z hrrr is the worst yet lol. Wow 2/3 supercells ahead of the line, and a broken line. Jaw has dropped

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hrrr: “are you not entertained!?”

 

[Bulkshear]

15z hrrr is the worst yet lol. Wow 2/3 supercells ahead of the line, and a broken line. Jaw has dropped

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Yeah I just pulled this as well! If you look check out the Vorticity maxima showing up on the same run. This would help enhance the lift for any storms that fire out in front

 

[JPWX]

Okay. So no Level 4 Red Doom Marker today so I'm gonna go punch thru a wall. LOL! On a more serious note, this doesn't mean you should just tune out the threat today either.

That 45% damaging wind risk and 10% SIG TOR is nothing to sneeze at. Achoo (oops....)

 

[Brandon]

Waff 48 predictive radar has supercells over North Alabama as early as 4pm.

Yea, that is concerning...I'd much rather the activity kick-off a few hours later.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Brad arnold is chasing north Mississippi

 

[Weatherphreak]

nothing to see here

 

[David in SW Blount]

15z hrrr is the worst yet lol. Wow 2/3 supercells ahead of the line, and a broken line. Jaw has dropped

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Oh, I do not like the placement of that modeled supercell north of Birmingham!

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Reed trimmer in Memphis now

 

[David in SW Blount]

Up here in Ohio we get periodic tornadic weather, but nothing too bad. I've told my parents why a Weather Radio is needed, and they just say "I don't need a radio to get an alert, I have my phone". It's very, very scary how people don't realize how dangerous weather can be and think sleeping through TORWs is a completely normal thing to do. James Spann calls it the "siren mentality" and I fully believe what he says about it: people get so many false warnings that after a certain amount of time they just start thinking every warning is false, so when the big one comes everyone writes it off as just another blip on the radar.

I'm very dependent on my weather radio and am not happy it's down today. The phone apps are simply not reliable to me, and the alerts don't wake me up. I can't really understand why upgrades were scheduled in May. I realize it's not April, but still...

 

[TheSuckZone]

Oh, I do not like the placement of that modeled supercell north of Birmingham!

Environment

 

[Weatherphreak]

Oh, I do not like the placement of that modeled supercell north of Birmingham!

Classic Hwy 69 track it appears

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Those low level winds are really backed. Wow! @TheSuckZone

 

[Clancy]

Environment

View attachment 42705

Woah now. Hoping that doesn't verify at all.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Woah now. Hoping that doesn't verify at all.

Me either. That's incredibly backed. I dont see any surface feature that would make it like that, maybe a fluke? Those lapse rates are manageable/decent as well.

 

[Clancy]

Me either. That's incredibly backed. I dont see any surface feature that would make it like that, maybe a fluke? Those lapse rates are manageable/decent as well.

Could be a little bit of contamination, based on those omega values.

 

[Chris3024]

Tornado Warning Lauderdale Co, AL....possible on the ground:

 

[Clancy]

Watch out Shoals!

 

[Ozonelayer]

I reccomend taking a look at the 16Z HRRR as it comes in. I don't have the time to post it but juat to give you an idea, it's pretty bad.