SUMMARY...Small supercells with a history of producing tornadoes may
continue to pose a risk for brief tornadoes over the next couple of
hours as a warm front lifts northeastward.
DISCUSSION...21z surface analysis showed a diffuse warm front across
western Alabama and eastern Mississippi. Several small supercells
have developed over the last within the deep surface moisture to the
southwest of the warm front. Weak destabilization, MLCAPE around 500
J/kg, will likely continue to support weak convection for at least a
couple of hours. Backed low-level winds along the front are
enhancing low-level shear with 0-1km SRH of 150-200 m2/s2. Hi-res
guidance and observational trends suggest a corridor of tornado
potential will likely exists for at least a couple of hours as
storms move to the northeast along the front. Coverage is expected
to remain low, but a few tornadoes will be possible. Portions of
west-central Alabama will be included in a Tornado Watch being
coordinated across Mississippi.