Severe WX Severe Weather Threat: May 2-5, 2021

[Bama Ravens]

Tuesday:

Wednesday:

 

[Argus]

Are the analogs similar to May 2003?

 

[buckeye05]

Just an update on my chase trip, it’s been absolutely abysmal so far lol. Sitting near Jena, LA watching what are pretty much garden variety thunderstorms. Ah well.

Just happy to check out Dixie and the Plains though. Gonna try our luck in SW Missouri tomorrow, however.

 

[WhirlingWx]

Radar-confirmed tornado in Greene county, AL. Couplet is not much but there is a clear signature on CC from it

EDIT: This seems like one of those "power showers" or small transient supercells(?). I don't know what the correct term for it would be and someone can correct me if they know.

 

[Equus]

Absolutely didn't see that coming today

New tornado warning for Sumter

 

[TCLwx]

You can tell it caught the local mets off guard, too. 33/40 still isn't on.

 

[Equus]

At least 6 is on, but yeah, wouldn't be shocked if there's no one in the studio rn to cover it at many of the stations; this is definitely unexpected

 

[WhirlingWx]

Uhhh I don't think this is right lol but regardless yeah the environment doesn't scream "tornado warnings" at much of any forecastable lead time.

 

[TCLwx]

At least 6 is on, but yeah, wouldn't be shocked if there's no one in the studio rn to cover it at many of the stations; this is definitely unexpected

Looks like they're all on except 33/40 now. I was floored when my alert went off.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Spann still putting his suspenders on.

 

[Equus]

VWP from Columbus indicates decent speed and directional shear, can assume it's higher in the radar hole where those are

 

[TCLwx]

Spann still putting his suspenders on.

Suspenders are now on. Can confirm.

 

[TCLwx]

New warning for Monroe, Clarke, and Wilcox AL.

 

[WhirlingWx]

Two more tornado warnings just went up... some feisty little couplets on these cells.

EDIT: the one other than that posted above is an extension of a previous one between the Gainesville and Eutaw area .

 

[Bama Ravens]

Didn’t see this coming. Hopefully these will weaken quickly.

 

[TCLwx]

Looks like a watch is forthcoming.

 

[WhirlingWx]

There's a storm possibly showing some rotation south of Jena, LA so I wonder if @buckeye05 stayed there

 

[WhirlingWx]

Mesoscale Discussion 0477
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0441 PM CDT Sun May 02 2021

Areas affected...western Alabama.

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 022141Z - 022245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Small supercells with a history of producing tornadoes may
continue to pose a risk for brief tornadoes over the next couple of
hours as a warm front lifts northeastward.

DISCUSSION...21z surface analysis showed a diffuse warm front across
western Alabama and eastern Mississippi. Several small supercells
have developed over the last within the deep surface moisture to the
southwest of the warm front. Weak destabilization, MLCAPE around 500
J/kg, will likely continue to support weak convection for at least a
couple of hours. Backed low-level winds along the front are
enhancing low-level shear with 0-1km SRH of 150-200 m2/s2. Hi-res
guidance and observational trends suggest a corridor of tornado
potential will likely exists for at least a couple of hours as
storms move to the northeast along the front. Coverage is expected
to remain low, but a few tornadoes will be possible. Portions of
west-central Alabama will be included in a Tornado Watch being
coordinated across Mississippi.

..Lyons/Gleason.. 05/02/2021

 

[Bama Ravens]

 

[Equus]

40/20. Just one county away from me lol