Severe Weather Threat May 17-19, 2025

[Tennie]

The downtown area of Kansas City, Missouri, is now getting blasted by winds around 80 MPH.

 

[zath]

A part of me is thinking today may evolve similar to how April 2 did: a line of storms as the dominate mode with isolated/scattered supercells developing near and right ahead of the line that become intense. The area across southeast OK into northwest AR seems primed with the KSRX VWP having a sickle shape to it. Once the LLJ kicks in, the hodograph in the lower levels should enlarge and set the stage for some potentially strong tornadoes. There are multiple storms right now along the eastward edge of the line that are trying to increase in rotation, plus this area has yet to be worked over by the storms - looks like some localized CIN is keeping things at bay. Definitely a messy day to say the least!

 

[ColdFront]

Why is the cell near Santo TX struggling?

Low level shear is just plum awful right now. Most SRH values are under 100

 

[Jbop]

Why is the cell near Santo TX struggling?

That location has a less favorable environment than further north.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Currently watching what was a photogenic LP near Grafton, NE but it now looks to be struggling. Anyway, here's a quick raw clip from my phone of the Arnett tornado. Much more footage to go through...

 

[Kds86z]

3 tornado warnings in ok..

 

[lake.effect]

That cell near OKC / Moore is starting to spin

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Tennie]

There's likely an unwarned tornado that's about to hit Tahlequah, Oklahoma!

 

[TornadoFan]

Some little blips going up by Stillwater, OK.

 

[AJS]

 

[Kds86z]

There's likely an unwarned tornado that's about to hit Tahlequah, Oklahoma!

warned now

 

[Kds86z]

SPC still a believer

 

[Ebaad Jaffery]

What do y'all think about North TX, near Collin County/North DFW metroplex now? Situation seems conditional still but cap holds?

 

[Jbop]

What do y'all think about North TX, near Collin County/North DFW metroplex now? Situation seems conditional still but cap holds?

4-PM - 9 PM will be the max potential. Anything could be possible during this time frame

 

[Tennie]

4-PM - 9 PM will be the max potential. Anything could be possible during this time frame

It's past 5:00 PM right now, so we're now within that window. Let's see how things play out today/tonight...

 

[Ebaad Jaffery]

It's past 5:00 PM right now, so we're now within that window. Let's see how things play out today/tonight...

The situation where the cap remains is difficult as when the low-level jet strengthens, along with the dryline, that would be enough to spark off some supercells right?

 

[Tennie]

There's a TDS on the storm northeast of Tahlequah, OK. The Tornado Warning on it has been upgraded to "Confirmed".

 

[Tennie]

Looking at the storms on radar, it looks like the storms are growing upscale and lining out (at least for now, anyway).

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

Couple areas of rotation coming into Western Missouri now.