Severe Weather Threat May 17-19, 2025

[eep]

 

[Muwx]

Wray 2.0?

 

[OH-IOan]

 

[jiharris0220]

Volatile kinematics now advecting into southwest Ks.

 

[Schoeppeya]

GOES Imagery Viewer - NOAA / NESDIS / STAR

Near real-time publication of GOES-East and GOES-West images from NOAA/NESDIS/STAR

www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov

Cloud deck is eroding very quickly from the southwest now

 

[Kds86z]

Man..

 

[Tennie]

Some of those pics show damage from a solar farm.

 

[AJS]

That tornado actually wasn’t too far off from where my Dad’s office is in Colorado.

 

[NorthGaWeather]

Volatile kinematics now advecting into southwest Ks.
View attachment 42237

The event seems to be proceeding as forecast as we await dry line initiation later.

 

[Clancy]

Looks like a mix between a landspout and a supercellular tornado.

The *checks notes* day of the superspouts!

 

[US_Highway15]

New MCD out for Oklahoma and Kansas. Looks like they're aware of the cool air and cloud cover potentially limiting destabilization at this time.

 

[jiharris0220]

 

[WhirlingWx]

What a catch. Shame that it caused damage. Hopefully nothing else too serious.

 

[UpperLevelLOL]

Hoooooo boy that's some strong wording and winds, wonder if we get a PDS watch

 

[slenker]

155-190 mph is very bullish despite the concerns with cloud cover. I would be shocked if we didn't see at least 2 EF3+ tornadoes touch down today.

 

[US_Highway15]

Hoooooo boy that's some strong wording and winds, wonder if we get a PDS watch

I feel like if you're forecasting EF3-EF4 tornadoes (especially if the ceiling is 190 MPH tornadoes), then you gotta issue a PDS watch.

155-190 mph is very bullish despite the concerns with cloud cover. I would be shocked if we didn't see at least 2 EF3+ tornadoes touch down today.

With the kinematics in place around the latest MCD area, I wouldn't count out more than two EF3+ tornadoes. That's of course if the LLJ disperses the cloud cover.

 

[Tanner]

May 23, 2008 and May 24, 2011 are the two dates I can match with today’s potential.

 

[Tennie]

May 23, 2008 and May 24, 2011 are the two dates I can match with today’s potential.

There's certainly a fairly high ceiling today, but also a fairly low floor. My best guess right now is that its performance will most likely fall somewhere in between, but we shall see...

 

[US_Highway15]

There's certainly a fairly high ceiling today, but also a fairly low floor. My best guess right now is that its performance will most likely fall somewhere in between, but we shall see...

I agree. I feel like if there wasn't any issues with cloud cover, then I would say the ceiling is the more likely scenario, but I don't feel that way anymore to be honest.

I say that now and then we're gonna have an EF4 tornado go through Dodge City, or El Reno/Moore/OKC (I'm partly kidding but not really lol)

 

[Maxis_s]

That's about as high end as you can get on the maximum tornado intensity estimate. High end EF3 to high end EF4.