Severe Weather Threat May 17-19, 2025

[TornadoFan]

 

[Maxis_s]

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

 

[UncleJuJu98]

View attachment 42203

Mod Got expanded I see

 

[ColdFront]

View attachment 42201
here is death run of the 15z hrrr, dats a high ahh ceiling

The May 20, 2019 May 18, 2025 moderate risk. What went wrong?

 

[Kds86z]

View attachment 42203

They mention models show different outcome of convection coverage.

 

[Schoeppeya]

SPC clearly isn’t completely sold on today, I’d love to know why bc from everything I’m seeing you could easily replace the mod with a high and it would be justified. The cams have been nailed in on that area for 24 hours +

 

[Jbop]

What are the factors at play for Monday’s threat for the DFW metroplex? Largest 10% hatched I’ve seen in some time.

Per FWD


As the potent upper trough digs closer on Monday, another round of
severe thunderstorms will develop along or ahead of the dryline
during the afternoon and evening. The dryline is likely to advance
a bit farther eastward into parts of North Texas by Monday
afternoon, perhaps bulging as far east as the I-35 corridor during
the peak heating hours. Initiation of scattered supercells should
be the result, with areas roughly along/east of I-35 and
along/north of I-20 at greatest risk for severe weather. This
would likely be a brief window of severe potential, as storms will
be fast-moving given the stronger wind fields in closer proximity
to the upper trough with mean southwesterly steering flow of 50+
kts. While storms may only be isolated/scattered in terms of
coverage, they would have the potential to pose high-impact severe
hazards, including tornadoes. This would be most likely across
parts of East/Northeast Texas during the late afternoon and early
evening hours when 0-1 km shear will increase to 20+ kts and 0-1
km SRH will climb to near 250 m2/s2. These storms will likely
race off to the northeast and out of the forecast area around
sunset.

 

[Kds86z]

SPC clearly isn’t completely sold on today, I’d love to know why bc from everything I’m seeing you could easily replace the mod with a high and it would be justified. The cams have been nailed in on that area for 24 hours +

^^^^ not confidence in coverage

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

here is discussion

 

[Kds86z]

View attachment 42205
here is discussion

4000…

 

[Kds86z]

Classic warm front/dryline/triple point setup. I would head there if a chaser.

 

[Jbop]

Was the hail a 45% hatched prior to the update? Just noticed it

 

[ColdFront]

I just don’t buy that. You’re looking at a high end 4/26/91 type outbreak if that were to verify verbatim. I’ve seen the HRRR (which is a very reliable model) do that a few times, mainly 3/15 this year, 5/20/2019 etc and the actual events weren’t anything close to that. The sheer number of discrete cells it’s displaying is a bit overcooked IMO.

 

[Kds86z]

Sorry if posted.

 

[AJS]

I just don’t buy that. You’re looking at a high end 4/26/91 type outbreak if that were to verify verbatim. I’ve seen the HRRR (which is a very reliable model) do that a few times, mainly 3/15 this year, 5/20/2019 etc and the actual events weren’t anything close to that. The sheer number of discrete cells it’s displaying is a bit overcooked IMO.

What actually led to 5/20/19 not living up to the forecast? I’ve never found out why.

 

[AJS]

Sheesh…

 

[N0mz]

What actually led to 5/20/19 not living up to the forecast? I’ve never found out why.

capping was much higher than expected, CC has a good video on it

 

[AJS]

Also can we please get rid of the post is too short? I know that was for the March 15, 2025 outbreak with how cluttered that thread got, but It’s on every thread now.

 

[ColdFront]

What actually led to 5/20/19 not living up to the forecast? I’ve never found out why.

Trey has a really good video on it. Unfavorable trough ejection and timing, cap building back in, storm mode, and this huge rain shield to the north. Some people like to say the smoke from wildfires in Mexico bolstered the cap, but I don’t buy that.