Severe Weather Threat May 17-19, 2025

[joshoctober16]

There are a ton of factors that go into something being a super outbreak, and a good deal of them aren’t something you can ascertain from a sounding.

again i never said this is going to be a super outbreak , im just saying that the thermos part of it is perfect for one , but the hodo part isn't.

 

[US_Highway15]

Multiple chasers I'm seeing or talking to worried about this same thing for Monday, storm more looks like trash. Saying today is the make or break day possibly.

I agree. Honestly today looks worse than tomorrow does based off storm mode alone, pairing with the kinematics at play.

 

[AJS]

I agree. Honestly today looks worse than tomorrow does based off storm mode alone, pairing with the kinematics at play.

Agreed. I wouldn’t be surprised if they upgrade to a moderate later for today.

 

[tornado examiner]

Agreed. I wouldn’t be surprised if they upgrade to a moderate later for today.

They already have.

 

[joshoctober16]

Agreed. I wouldn’t be surprised if they upgrade to a moderate later for today.

wait you didn't hear that its already upgraded?

 

[ColdFront]

I agree. Honestly today looks worse than tomorrow does based off storm mode alone, pairing with the kinematics at play.

Storm Mode is always king. You can have a 4/27/11 type environment but if discrete mature supercells aren’t there to take advantage of it, it’s a moot point.

 

[SmokeEater]

Agreed. I wouldn’t be surprised if they upgrade to a moderate later for today.

I'm sitting here thinking I'm losing it that there's multiple posts saying they should upgrade today.... Lol

 

[rushdude]

10% TOR risk includes DFW for tomorrow.
And today is a 5% TOR risk.
Not how I wanted to start the new week..

 

[AJS]

View attachment 42195
wait you didn't hear that its already upgraded?

I actually feel stupid now lol.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[AJS]

I'm sitting here thinking I'm losing it that there's multiple posts saying they should upgrade today.... Lol

I didn’t know they had upgraded that’s my bad.

 

[AJS]

I’m kinda kicking myself for not going out to chase.

 

[Kds86z]

Agreed. I wouldn’t be surprised if they upgrade to a moderate later for today.

It is moderate today @AJS

 

[SmokeEater]

I didn’t know they had upgraded that’s my bad.

All good man, no worries.

 

[Schoeppeya]

RRFS going full supercell printer mode again

 

[Kds86z]

 

[zath]

Pretty strong moisture return streaming north across OK and the southern row or two of counties in KS. Over the past 4 hours, Dodge City, KS has had a temperature and dewpoint increase of close to 10 degrees F (57/48 -> 65/59). Weatherford, OK similar story: 65/63 -> 72/69. It's going to feel gross outside the afternoon with all the moisture especially across OK where the dewpoints are going to be in the 70s.

I definitely don't miss living in the south, walking outside and needing a knife to cut through the air.

 

[AJS]

RRFS going full supercell printer mode again

This for today?

 

[TornadoFan]

Excuse me?

 

[Kds86z]

.