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Severe Weather Threat May 17-19, 2025

From a local met


Steve McCauley​

45m ·
Large hail and damaging winds accompanied severe thunderstorms across the southern half of north Texas yesterday afternoon and evening. Hail from the size of peas to tennis balls fell in many locations, with some of the largest stones in Hood, Johnson, and Ellis Counties.
The largest hail was created by a rotating supercell storm that moved to the ESE, while the hailer that moved NE was not rotating nearly as fast and produced smaller stones. You can see where the storms crossed paths making an "X" just south of the Metroplex.
Storms that spin - i.e., supercells - tend to move to the right of the upper level steering winds which is why it moved ESE while the storm that did not spin nearly as much moved NE following the winds aloft.
The path of the supercell storm that produced the largest hail can also be clearly seen in the "Rotation Tracks" image where MyOwnRadar tracked the strength of how fast the storm updraft was rotating. The faster the spin, the larger the hail tends to be.
At one point the spin got up to level 15 (out of 30) which prompted a Tornado Warning as it moved from southern Ellis and into northern Navarro County. Low-level winds were fairly weak, however, so it appears the rotation was unable to make it to the ground.
Another round of hailstorms will move into north Texas this afternoon and evening from the west as the cap continues to weaken allowing more storms to form more easily than yesterday.
If low-level winds strengthen just a little more, there will be an increase in the tornado threat as well.
Stay alert!
 
I am not kidding when I say this. Both Sunday and Monday have a LOT of potential. The NAM 3KM, RAP, NAM, and HRRR are painting an environment in which could support (Say it with me now) Long track, intense to violent tornadoes if it pans out. Monday is more dependent on tomorrow's threat, in which if nothing happens, then the environment might get even MORE favorable. If the cap breaks and we get semi discrete/discrete activity that takes full advantage of the environment on either of those days, then yesterday will look like a side antagonist that is a precursor to a much worse villain.
 
Ozonelayer said:
I am not kidding when I say this. Both Sunday and Monday have a LOT of potential. The NAM 3KM, RAP, NAM, and HRRR are painting an environment in which could support (Say it with me now) Long track, intense to violent tornadoes if it pans out. Monday is more dependent on tomorrow's threat, in which if nothing happens, then the environment might get even MORE favorable. If the cap breaks and we get semi discrete/discrete activity that takes full advantage of the environment on either of those days, then yesterday will look like a side antagonist that is a precursor to a much worse villain.
Click to expand...

Word @Ozonelayer . Trey mentioned Monday has more forcing and a higher ceiling but lower floor.

Day 2 is late..
 
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