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Severe Weather Threat May 17-19, 2025

tornado examiner said:
What is the current potential ceiling for this event based on what we know?
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I think Sunday and Monday have the potential to be the highest ceiling days of the year so far. Think the only failure mode I can find right now is whether the cap breaks, and I think it will. Going out on a limb but I would not be surprised at all to see back to back high risks should the cams show enough convective coverage.

ETA: The 0z 3k Nam puts out some of the most ludicrous tornado parameters for Sunday night I’ve ever seen WHILE also having storms ongoing in that environment. 4-5k of CAPE and 500 + 0-3km SRH.

Not going to post them but cherry picked a few soundings with 800-1000 of 0-3 SRH

Not surprised the helicity tracks looks like they do.
 

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Last edited:
UncleJuJu98 said:
Ummm.....
View attachment 42052
Click to expand...
1747483983146.jpeg
Antenna raised.

SPC brief below for D4 below.
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION......Day 4/Tuesday...
As the primary mid-level trough shifts east on Tuesday, scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will be present ahead of a cold front. Convection/cloud cover from Day 3 convection across the Plains/Ozarks will impact destabilization across Kentucky and into the Ohio Valley. However,
farther south, strong destabilization is likely as the boundary layer heats beneath steepening mid-level lapse rates. 50 to 60 knots of mid-level flow will overspread this unstable warm sector during the afternoon Tuesday. As this occurs, an uncapped boundary layer and synoptic scale ascent should combine for scattered severe storm development. Wherever moderate to strong instability develops, most likely south of the TN/KY border, supercells are anticipated with a primary threat for large hail. By later in the evening, storms may congeal into a MCS with an increasing damaging wind threat.
 
Sharpy said:
View attachment 42054
Antenna raised.

SPC brief below for D4 below.
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION......Day 4/Tuesday...
As the primary mid-level trough shifts east on Tuesday, scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will be present ahead of a cold front. Convection/cloud cover from Day 3 convection across the Plains/Ozarks will impact destabilization across Kentucky and into the Ohio Valley. However,
farther south, strong destabilization is likely as the boundary layer heats beneath steepening mid-level lapse rates. 50 to 60 knots of mid-level flow will overspread this unstable warm sector during the afternoon Tuesday. As this occurs, an uncapped boundary layer and synoptic scale ascent should combine for scattered severe storm development. Wherever moderate to strong instability develops, most likely south of the TN/KY border, supercells are anticipated with a primary threat for large hail. By later in the evening, storms may congeal into a MCS with an increasing damaging wind threat.
Click to expand...
Ugh not again..
 
rushdude said:
5% TOR risk for DFW, but no black marker for that today unlike last time.
And unlike last time, I've woken up to sunlight instead of the Forrest Gump downpouts?

I'll keep my eyes out
Click to expand...
Currently the main threat for DFW is large hail and high-winds.


From FWD

Update:
Overnight guidance continues to support this afternoon`s
anticipated convective trends outlined in the previous forecast
below, with initiation along and east of the dryline expected by
mid afternoon. While extreme instability would be favorable for
large hail initially with discrete cells, fairly quick upscale
growth into one or more linear segments should occur which would
lessen the hail threat to an extent (as compared to a discrete
supercellular mode) but could significantly increase the damaging
wind threat in parts of North Texas.
 
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