2017 was probably the most boring year for severe weather and tornadoes since 2009 (I've heard some people say 2009 was worse but I only started following severe weather around January/February 2014 so I can't confirm). I wouldn't even say this year is as bad as 2017.
Agreed. Also, this forum is heavily focused on Alabama/Southern States. If this were centered on Columbus, MS then you'd have a lot more people involved in the lead up.
If there happens to be many favorable mergers that grow into one healthy supercell, then that LCL/updraft size won't matter. All we need is one supercell to utilise that intense tornado threat. I feel like that scenario is the most likely. If I'm correct, temps rising higher create a better cap/inversion of sorts to prevent crapvection, right?
That’s the thing though, when your individual updraft size is too small, combine with extremely high shear, it’s very difficult to get a descent sized storm even with mergers.
I don't like taking these runs as gospel but considering the HRRR is modeling the MCS better in recent runs, this isn't a great sig now that it's modeling convection better. Peak intensity is 140-160 on my method,for today
The crazy thing about 2017 is that the 1/22/2017 set-up checked just about every box you’d want to see checked for a major outbreak. That wasn’t the case with the other two high risk days that year (still have no idea what they were thinking with the 4/5 high risk specifically). Yet, we really only saw one supercell do anything of note that day which was the very long-track EF-3 that impacted Albany, GA.
not happy with two straight days of 30% wind probs though.
I lost power yesterday and I was only in a TSTM risk. Fun
It's not even severe warned anymore. This is the beginning of our event. Whether we reach the ceiling some models have said remains to be seen but i see something in the middle today.
