Severe WX Severe Weather Threat June 6-14

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND NEAR THE MODIFYING BOUNDARY. STRONGLY
SHEARED PROFILES WILL SUPPORT INITIAL SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL AND TORNADOES (A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO INTENSE). THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
BE AND HOW LONG DISCRETE SUPERCELL STORM MODES CAN BE MAINTAINED. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT A CORRIDOR OF HIGHER TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BECOME
CLEAR WITH NEED TO INCLUDE HIGHER PROBABILITIES AS DETAILS BECOME
CLEARER IN FURTHER OUTLOOK UPDATES.

 

[buckeye05]

Nah just a complex forecast ahead with many factors to consider. For example, overall a very volatile environment but with weak low level lapse rates and uncertainties about how things will evolve.

Edit: Not even a moderate, staying with enhanced.

 

[buckeye05]

Ok looks like we could see a 15% if things evolve favorably. I'm not at all confident this thing is going to reach its ceiling of potential. Things could get ugly but this one has a lot of uncertainty at play.

 

[US_Highway15]

Welcome back 45% wind probs: