Severe WX Severe Weather Threat June 6-14

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND NEAR THE MODIFYING BOUNDARY. STRONGLY
SHEARED PROFILES WILL SUPPORT INITIAL SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL AND TORNADOES (A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO INTENSE). THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
BE AND HOW LONG DISCRETE SUPERCELL STORM MODES CAN BE MAINTAINED. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT A CORRIDOR OF HIGHER TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BECOME
CLEAR WITH NEED TO INCLUDE HIGHER PROBABILITIES AS DETAILS BECOME
CLEARER IN FURTHER OUTLOOK UPDATES.

 

[buckeye05]

Nah just a complex forecast ahead with many factors to consider. For example, overall a very volatile environment but with weak low level lapse rates and uncertainties about how things will evolve.

Edit: Not even a moderate, staying with enhanced.

 

[buckeye05]

Ok looks like we could see a 15% if things evolve favorably. I'm not at all confident this thing is going to reach its ceiling of potential. Things could get ugly but this one has a lot of uncertainty at play.

 

[US_Highway15]

Welcome back 45% wind probs:

 

[Beachwalker]

One thing I don’t recall seeing this season is really potent jet streak winds in the ejection areas as they come around the trough. Like 70-80 mph. Anything like that for today?

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

100 mph+ winds rolling through Iowa right now. Super gnarly QLCS.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Yeah, I'd argue today could stay 10CIG1, maybe go 10CIG2. A lot of uncertainties

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

Good ol textbook enh risk mcs lmfao like wow thats really pretty

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

wadafuqq

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Moderate risk now issued by Guyer/Wendt

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

wtf welcome to weather ig

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

I would've stayed 10CIG2 but they have enough confidence it seems already for a potentially significant event. The discussion is focused on the MCS mostly which is odd. The summary does mention strong tornadoes but yet the forecast discussion itself doesn't.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

acc discussion mb

 

[US_Highway15]

I would've stayed 10CIG2 but they have enough confidence it seems already for a potentially significant event. The discussion is focused on the MCS mostly which is odd. The summary does mention strong tornadoes but yet the forecast discussion itself doesn't.

Wouldn't be surprised if that 45% gets moved further eastward into most of north central Northern IN and Southern MI if we're just baked with sun all day and no precipitation. Currently here in Middlebury IN , sun is out.

 

[jiharris0220]

12z hrrr now showing multiple discrete OWS supercells well out ahead of the cold front. It’ll be interesting to see if this is a fluke run or not.

 

[US_Highway15]

12z hrrr now showing multiple discrete OWS supercells well out ahead of the cold front. It’ll be interesting to see if this is a fluke run or not.
View attachment 53223

Was about to post that. If this isn't a fluke, that 10% or heck a 10% CIG2, would definitely have to be moved eastward into IWX (Northern Indiana).

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

12z hrrr now showing multiple discrete OWS supercells well out ahead of the cold front. It’ll be interesting to see if this is a fluke run or not.
View attachment 53223

It's a robust run. One supercell at 21z in NW IL that would probably hold the best tor threat of the day and then significant tornadoes if prefrontals sustain ahead of the line. With the line producing fairly significant winds and many tornadoes.

Wouldn't rule it out being a possibility. Still I'm convinced this should've stayed 10CIG2.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Note the MCS is moving faster than the HRRR had it. Airmass recovery will be likely earlier than expected s that means timing adjustments but also a longer lived window for this event.

 

[GXSC]

The MCS just passed us a while ago but it is still extremely windy. I'm guessing this is because due east about 1-2 counties there is a massive bow echo.