Severe WX Severe Weather Threat June 6-14

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

E KS lining out although southern storm near Chapman could still produce a tornado, peak intensity: 100-120 mph.


Oregon, MO cell really catching my eye though, wouldn't be shocked if a strong tornado developed out of that soon.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

Reports of a confirmed tornado near Chapman KS.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Supercell near Chapman has a very strong inflow signature. One good surge and this could be a significant tornado developing

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

With such a look, a bit surprised that meso is detached. Regardless, tornado threat ramping up short term

 

[Kds86z]

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

And that's today's main tornado risk finished imo. I'll stay up for 00Z HRRR

 

[N0mz]

00z hrrr is fire

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Peak intensity is 130/150 there on that run. Very slight downtrend imo

 

[TheSuckZone]

 

[buckeye05]

We might have a stationary tornado near Lyons, KS

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

Sig tornado imminent?

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

Once again we have absolute upper echelon kinematics in play tomorrow, but it doesn't even remotely present that way on sim reflectivity. This year has been an exercise of increasingly bonkers parameter spaces falling flat. If we don't get an outbreak out of 90 kt jetstream, 800 SRH, and 4000 CAPE then Idk lol.

I will note that 250 mb winds are basically nonexistent over the main areas of convection tomorrow so maybe that has something to do with it.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[DanLarsen34]

Once again we have absolute upper echelon kinematics in play tomorrow, but it doesn't even remotely present that way on sim reflectivity. This year has been an exercise of increasingly bonkers parameter spaces falling flat. If we don't get an outbreak out of 90 kt jetstream, 800 SRH, and 4000 CAPE then Idk lol.

I will note that 250 mb winds are basically nonexistent over the main areas of convection tomorrow so maybe that has something to do with it.

Tomorrow is one of those days where all it would take is one storm to go completely bonkers, but we have no idea if that will occur right now. That combination of CAPE and SRH is basically April 27th levels of insanity. Violent tornadoes are definitely in-play IF things break right.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[buckeye05]

QLCS tornadoes going nuts in Illinois

 

[Kds86z]