Severe WX Severe Weather Threat June 6-14

[joshoctober16]

unwarned tornado has been going on for a storm with zero warning , hitting multiple homes

 

[Central Ohio Wx]

This sigtor has been ongoing for multiple minutes with NO SVR or TOR warning. Absolutely insane.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Not to stir up the pot but this thread already seems like it's verifying well. Stuff happens for no reason in June and I think this sigtor in Arkansas is the example.... A tornado threat with <100 mph peak intensity may continue with a almost tropical environment down here. Certainly wasn't eying it.

 

[JPWX]

Yeah. Tulsa office should have issued a SVR warning on it and frankly, a Tornado Warning would have been prompted as soon as 7:22pm.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Expect a Mike Smith post about this one in the next day or two like he always does with unwarned or lack of urgency type situations like this one. Not that i really like the guy, but just saying his blog will have it

Very interesting storm dynamics at play here with a slack mid level jet yet strong LLJ at the surface and a almost tropical environment, you get deviant, rapidly cycling, tropical tornadoes here. Don't know how much longer this goes on for but we will see.

 

[warneagle]

Welp. Can't say that I saw that coming. Especially for the NE.

we got popped with a pretty good line of severe thunderstorms between DC and Baltimore. fortunately it hit College Park about 5 minutes after I walked off the 18th green. had to dodge at least one downed tree on the Baltimore-Washington Parkway coming home.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Anti-Freeze]

Radar a few minutes ago was showing 4 simultaneous tornado warnings from Ft. Smith to Mena, how is there no tornado watch?

 

[TheSuckZone]

Radar a few minutes ago was showing 4 simultaneous tornado warnings from Ft. Smith to Mena, how is there no tornado watch?

 

[Beachwalker]

Is that Canada storm going to split and then do something finally?

 

[WesL]

<<< Location

Just grrreeeeaaatt. Local news is reporting quite a bit of damage. Hate that wasn't a warned storm. TUL normally is better than that.

https://www.5newsonline.com/watch actually had a studio fire (not related) during the tornado coverage.

 

[iujkiaweatherman]

might go chasing tomorrow, hope the tornado risk increases (dont take this the wrong way). any of you guys think the severe threat gets uograded?

 

[Kds86z]

might go chasing tomorrow, hope the tornado risk increases (dont take this the wrong way). any of you guys think the severe threat gets uograded?

We shall see. It’s June so stay tuned, never know and keep up to date with SPC day 1 outlooks

Here is new day 1 fresh off press @iujkiaweatherman.


AT 21Z, RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH IN WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA HAVE 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 40 TO 50 KNOT RANGE WITH
700-500 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 8.5 C/KM. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. THE MORE DOMINANT
SUPERCELLS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAILSTONES GREATER THAN 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS WELL. SUPERCELLS WILL BE FAVORED IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON WHEN CELLS WILL LIKE

 

[iujkiaweatherman]

is day 1 already out? i thought they updated at 1am CST. 9 minutes for me

 

[Kds86z]

is day 1 already out? i thought they updated at 1am CST. 9 minutes for me

Yeah it’s out around 1am cst

 

[iujkiaweatherman]

oh yep i see it too now

 

[Kds86z]

 

[akt1985]

Yeah this may be a bit premature bud lol

The SPC does not have an outlook for D3 (Monday) yet. We have to be careful not to title threads for extended periods of time.

There is now a Slight Risk for Monday around where Colorado, Wyoming and Nebraska meet.

 

[Kds86z]

.

 

[Kds86z]

For today:

..MT/WY/DAKOTAS

INCREASINGLY PROBABLE A SWATH OF INTENSE GUSTS ---POSSIBLY A BOW
ECHO--- IS PROGGED BY A DIVERSE ARRAY OF DIFFERENT MODEL CORES/RUNS
THIS MORNING. THIS MODEL SIGNAL APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN THE
CO-LOCATION OF SURFACE FEATURES, LAPSE RATES, AND UPPER-LEVEL
SUPPORT. IT IS WITHIN THIS MESOSCALE CORRIDOR THAT LOCALIZED PEAK
GUSTS MAY RANGE 85-100 MPH. CONSIDERED AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK
BUT WILL DEFER TO THE 20 UTC OUTLOOK FOR ADDITIONAL MODEL RUN-TO-RUN
CONTINUITY AND CONFIDENCE IN MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENTAL FEATURES.