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Severe Weather Threat June 6-11

jiharris0220 said:
With vertical instability of this caliber underneath an inversion layer like this, you can legitimately go from a small puff of cumulus humulus to a full mature supercell over a 100miles long in the span of 30minutes.
Obviously this is the 3km NAM here and over 2days out. Nebraska really has a low chance of seeing convection even with this environment because the forcing mechanism will be too far north.
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8900 CAPE?! Holy $hit! It's worth noting a wet bulb temp of 88 is considered deadly for healthy adults. 86 is deadly for young children and the elderly. This sounding is showing around 83 or 84.
 
Today could get interesting in Colorado. My peak intensity guidance is reaching 120-140 mph. These profiles have produced significant tornadoes + extremely large hail combo before.
 

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StormNet has trended down SLIGHTLY, but is more widespread on the tornado threat. ASTORP isn't super convinced on the tornadoes. CSU has expanded the risk area quite dramatically and now has the entire state of Wisconsin in the hatched. Definitely agree with @WeathermanLeprechaun that these don't really mean much anymore. Just like every other set up this year the LLJ and Jet stream appear to be mostly out of alignment, the highest CAPE values are well south of convection, and the trough is zonal rather than negatively tilted.

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Another very interesting development is the Euro appears to show convection shooting down from the Northeast, which will slice into instability quite a bit, but could also bring Temps and DPs together? The GFS isn't showing anything like it. It almost has to be a glitch because it puts temps and dewpoints completely in alignment. The storms would be ground scrapers.. Idk it's a weird presentation.

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GFS thinks we're going to have two sub 990 mb lows in play at the same time, so that'd be quite eventful. I'm starting to feel like it's kind of useless in the 3-5 day range, and the Euro has much better verification this year. It hasn't even really been close.

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Day 4:

A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SURFACE FRONT, WHICH COUPLED WITH MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES IS EXPECTED TO YIELD MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. THE
PRESENCE OF A 50-70 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ATTENDING THE SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ALONG THE
FRONTAL ZONE, WITH VECTOR ORIENTATION BECOMING INCREASINGLY PARALLEL
TO THE BOUNDARY WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT. THE OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS
SUPPORTIVE OF AN ORGANIZED SEVERE-WEATHER EPISODE FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES INTO MID MS VALLEY. THERE IS SOME MODEL SIGNAL THAT A
CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED TORNADO POTENTIAL COULD DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK FROM EASTERN IA AND NORTHERN IL INTO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WI. THAT POTENTIAL SCENARIO WILL BE DICTATED BY
THE LOCATION OF THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
 

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The issue with overforecasting is people just look at CAMs. The highest STP, SCP. Not a look a the synoptics or the issues hidden inside the soundings. Then they wonder "why does every event always underperform?"

I'd argue this year, people making setups to be more than they are has led to this high standard for events with clear failure modes. Maybe, half of these events never had the ceiling people made it out to be.


Today could either be very large hailers with a brief tornado or we see that significant tornado ceiling being breached.

Also, one year of a hot EML doesn't mean this will be yearly. We had a exceptional period from 2023-2025 of major, significant events. Active periods always end eventually. This year being a breather is a good thing. For chasers? Not so much. Remember, fall season could easily be the genuine peak of the season given how things have went. I do wish some open field stunner would happen eventually though :/
 
Kds86z said:

Day 4:

A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SURFACE FRONT, WHICH COUPLED WITH MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES IS EXPECTED TO YIELD MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. THE
PRESENCE OF A 50-70 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ATTENDING THE SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ALONG THE
FRONTAL ZONE, WITH VECTOR ORIENTATION BECOMING INCREASINGLY PARALLEL
TO THE BOUNDARY WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT. THE OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS
SUPPORTIVE OF AN ORGANIZED SEVERE-WEATHER EPISODE FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES INTO MID MS VALLEY. THERE IS SOME MODEL SIGNAL THAT A
CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED TORNADO POTENTIAL COULD DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK FROM EASTERN IA AND NORTHERN IL INTO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WI. THAT POTENTIAL SCENARIO WILL BE DICTATED BY
THE LOCATION OF THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
Click to expand...

severe_ml_day4_gefso_061212.png
Interesting that CSU's models are saying that central to northern OK will have the highest potential threat.
 
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