• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

Severe Weather Threat June 5-9

Jbop said:
Just noticed that OKC is also in the mix for tomorrow while there's an NBA finals game going on in OKC. Game starts around 7 PM CST right around the time it suppose to hit OKC.
Click to expand...
This probably isn't the best timing. But I'm cheering on the Oilers for the Stanley Cup & pay little attention to the NBA. So I don't follow the NBA.
 
I’ve heard that there was some sort of sentiment that the SPC has where they simply aren’t going to issue high risks for wind any more, it’s purely a tornado thing. Which, if true, seems okay to me. A wind-driven high risk is simply not nearly as potentially dangerous or devastating as a violent tornado outbreak is capable of being. The website still says it’s possible though, so I’m guessing they can still occur if there’s high confidence in a strong derecho occurring.
 
slenker said:
I’ve heard that there was some sort of sentiment that the SPC has where they simply aren’t going to issue high risks for wind any more, it’s purely a tornado thing. Which, if true, seems okay to me. A wind-driven high risk is simply not nearly as potentially dangerous or devastating as a violent tornado outbreak is capable of being. The website still says it’s possible though, so I’m guessing they can still occur if there’s high confidence in a strong derecho occurring.
Click to expand...
I've spoken with a SPC meteorologist on that subject and he said they can still pull a High Risk for widespread damaging winds contrary to the idea that it's just for tornadoes now. However, he did say that it would have to high end confidence on their end.
 
Funnel cloud has been reported by spotter on this current tor warn storm. On it's trajectory, it's headed right for me.
 
The lightning with these storms from both Monroe and Pontotoc Counties are fierce. I was honestly scared walking out to put GoPro up just now.
 
@JPWX Would something like "which will not only support intense winds along the leading edge of the complex, but also through much of the precip mass, leading to a prolonged duration of significant severe gusts." give pause for the SPC to possibly pull the trigger on a high-risk wind event.

The bold was from the Twitter post from Weathertrack US
 
Jbop said:
@JPWX Would something like "which will not only support intense winds along the leading edge of the complex, but also through much of the precip mass, leading to a prolonged duration of significant severe gusts." give pause for the SPC to possibly pull the trigger on a high-risk wind event.

The bold was from the Twitter post from Weathertrack US
Click to expand...
It would. That would certainly meet Derecho criteria. BTW here's definition for Derecho:
"By definition, if the wind damage swath extends more than 240 miles (about 400 kilometers) and includes wind gusts of at least 58 mph (93 km/h) or greater along most of its length, then the event may be classified as a derecho."

However, I'm not SPC so we'll just have to wait and see.
 
JPWX said:
It would. That would certainly meet Derecho criteria. BTW here's definition for Derecho:
"By definition, if the wind damage swath extends more than 240 miles (about 400 kilometers) and includes wind gusts of at least 58 mph (93 km/h) or greater along most of its length, then the event may be classified as a derecho."

However, I'm not SPC so we'll just have to wait and see.
Click to expand...
Thanks for the response.

The most recent Derecho I remember was from Houston which had an enhanced outlook. A high-risk event for wind must take quite a bit for the SPC to pull the trigger on

1749359087449.png


1749359107589.png


1749359116727.png


blog.weathertap.com

Breaking Down the "One of a Kind" Derecho Event in Houston, TX | weatherTAP Blog

A derecho moved across Houston, TX on the evening of May 16th causing massive damage to downtown and leaving one million people in the dark.
blog.weathertap.com
 
JPWX said:
I've spoken with a SPC meteorologist on that subject and he said they can still pull a High Risk for widespread damaging winds contrary to the idea that it's just for tornadoes now. However, he did say that it would have to high end confidence on their end.
Click to expand...

The problem is that the truly top-end derechos (those that produce widespread >100 MPH gusts over a long swath), at least historically, haven't been that easy to forecast with high confidence. The couple of times they have issued wind-driven (60% hatched) High risks that I'm aware of, the resulting event hasn't been that exceptional, and the last such event we had, at least in the Midwest (8/10/2020), much of the affected area was in a Marginal risk on the initial Day 1 outlook!

It was before I was old enough to really be paying attention to what the SPC was doing (or before we even had Internet at my house), but the previous really high-end derecho event that affected southern Wisconsin (5/30-31/1998) IIRC was a moderate risk.
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top