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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat June 19-28

Jbop said:
Has the 5% hatched taken over for the 10% hatched for the "Strong tornado" mention? I did notice the SPC mentioned "strong tornado may occur." in their most recent write-up. Guessing that must mean the 10% hatched is now more of the mention of "Violent tornadoes, and or multiple strong tornadoes
Click to expand...
Short answer- no, because the mention of strong tornadoes is not assigned to a specific probability. neither is that of violent tornadoes.

for a longer answer;
The single hatching, aka the dashed lines, mean that a "reasonable maximum intensity" in that area is EF2. that's where the mention of strong tornadoes comes from. An increase to a 10% hatched would not automatically mean that the SPC calls for violent tornadoes- in fact, under both the new and old system, a 30% hatched would not automatically mean the mention of violent tornadoes. For the SPC to mention violent tornadoes, they would use a level 3 hatching, which is shown by a double-line pattern.

a resource that can explain it better than I can is the SPC itself: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/about/outlooks/
and also this video that goes more in depth:
 
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ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE
LOW EAST ALONG THE FRONTAL SEGMENT IN SOUTHWEST KS AND NORTHWEST OK.
THAT ENVIRONMENT FEATURES A CONSIDERABLY MORE MOIST/LOW LCL
BOUNDARY, WHICH COINCIDES WITH A ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STORM MODES CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF
US 283.
 
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A FOCUSED CORRIDOR OF RELATIVELY GREATER TORNADO POTENTIAL IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KS INTO NORTHWEST OK -- ALONG A
RECOVERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THERE WAS SOME CONSIDERATION FOR HIGHER
TORNADO PROBABILITIES HERE, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT CORRIDOR
WAS TOO LOW FOR THE UPGRADE AT THIS TIME.
 
Destructive SVR warning on the storm near Beaver w/ 4.00 inch hail and 60 mph winds. Wouldn't want any part of that.

EDIT: Gave it a TORR as well just now.
 
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