Severe WX Severe Weather Threat June 19-28

[Kds86z]

 

[ThatGuy;P]

Has the 5% hatched taken over for the 10% hatched for the "Strong tornado" mention? I did notice the SPC mentioned "strong tornado may occur." in their most recent write-up. Guessing that must mean the 10% hatched is now more of the mention of "Violent tornadoes, and or multiple strong tornadoes

Short answer- no, because the mention of strong tornadoes is not assigned to a specific probability. neither is that of violent tornadoes.

for a longer answer;
The single hatching, aka the dashed lines, mean that a "reasonable maximum intensity" in that area is EF2. that's where the mention of strong tornadoes comes from. An increase to a 10% hatched would not automatically mean that the SPC calls for violent tornadoes- in fact, under both the new and old system, a 30% hatched would not automatically mean the mention of violent tornadoes. For the SPC to mention violent tornadoes, they would use a level 3 hatching, which is shown by a double-line pattern.

a resource that can explain it better than I can is the SPC itself: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/about/outlooks/
and also this video that goes more in depth:

 

[Kds86z]

 

[joshoctober16]

looks to be pretty insane for today.

 

[Kds86z]

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE
LOW EAST ALONG THE FRONTAL SEGMENT IN SOUTHWEST KS AND NORTHWEST OK.
THAT ENVIRONMENT FEATURES A CONSIDERABLY MORE MOIST/LOW LCL
BOUNDARY, WHICH COINCIDES WITH A ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STORM MODES CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF
US 283.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[joshoctober16]

a lot of areas trying

 

[Kds86z]

a lot of areas trying View attachment 53919