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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat June 19-23

StormNet has turned itself into a remarkable tool and i think I caught the most insane instance of it verifying today.

It's not hard to verify a major outbreak by its standard but today, it outlined south of Gillette, WY specifically for a 10%+ chance of tornadoes. I checked soundings and went "meh not much shear but what is it onto". Fast forward to around two hours ago, a supercell tracked south of Gillette and dropped multiple brief tornadoes.

It's undeniable that this is easily the most promising tool for tornado forecasting seen in a very long while. No idea how it managed to pinpoint THAT exact area but this is showing you the capabilities of this tool already. Incredible.
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
StormNet has turned itself into a remarkable tool and i think I caught the most insane instance of it verifying today.

It's not hard to verify a major outbreak by its standard but today, it outlined south of Gillette, WY specifically for a 10%+ chance of tornadoes. I checked soundings and went "meh not much shear but what is it onto". Fast forward to around two hours ago, a supercell tracked south of Gillette and dropped multiple brief tornadoes.

It's undeniable that this is easily the most promising tool for tornado forecasting seen in a very long while. No idea how it managed to pinpoint THAT exact area but this is showing you the capabilities of this tool already. Incredible.
Click to expand...
Storm net bases its forecast off of dozens of ensembles that focus on generalized Synoptics plus total helicity track strength/length and coverage.
It doesn’t care about specific tornado intensity, whether there will be EF0 or EF5s, it just tells you there will be tornadoes.
This algorithm pretty much guarantees that theres no biases and is why it’s able to sniff out spots days out that absolutely would never have gotten noticed by cams let alone globals.
It’s never actually gotten a forecast wrong in terms of location, and the fact it ignores tornado intensity (CIG) helps a lot with this, although it’s a bit of a weakness if you’re trying to forecast how substantial a potential outbreak is.
I use storm net as just a generalizer of where an event will take place, as it’s literally never failed in this regard.
 
bckhd2 said:
Are we done for the night here in ATL? Thought we were supposed to have a line come through but looks like it went across the top quarter of the state instead of swinging down through the metro.
Click to expand...
Still a few more hours before things sweep through, rear portion of the MCV is still back in Alabama.
 
There was likely an unwarned tornado OTG in Tallapoosa County, Alabama a little while ago. An end to a weird day full of surprises.
1782190662516.png
 


Day 1:,ANY SUPERCELLS THAT CAN
INGEST TERRAIN-INDUCED LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL VORTICITY MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A LANDSPOUT/HYBRID TORNADO THREAT.

@joshoctober16
 
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