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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat June 19-23

Clancy said:
Oh, alright. Not expecting much from these storms themselves, but that's quite an interesting presentation.
View attachment 53852
Click to expand...
Yea, the environment at this moment is completely hostile for tornadic supercells. No deep layer sheer to speak of and the vertical wind profile is purely directional.
This will change come 5pm, low level winds will still be directional but far less so and deep layer sheer will improve slightly as well.
1782151954365.png1782151998726.png
 
Tornado Warning for HSV area. While the rotation isn't particularly strong in the low levels, there's a pronounced inflow notch.

Edit: As I was typing this, newest scan shows a small but tight couplet and a BWER. A tornado could form at any time.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
124 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

The National Weather Service in Huntsville Alabama has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Northwestern Jackson County in northeastern Alabama...
Northeastern Madison County in north central Alabama...
Southeastern Franklin County in Middle Tennessee...

* Until 215 PM CDT.

* At 124 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near New Market, or 12 miles east of Moores Mill,
moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
northwestern Jackson, northeastern Madison and southeastern
Franklin Counties, including the following locations... Bass,
Francisco, Jericho, Estillfork, Hytop, Anderson, Sherwood, and
Larkin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3487 8636 3493 8640 3517 8592 3492 8586
TIME...MOT...LOC 1824Z 249DEG 32KT 3491 8632

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
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1782152791182.png
 
Watch being considered over parts of GA/TN/NC/SC.
Mesoscale Discussion 1256
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0237 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Areas affected...eastern TN...northern GA...and the western
Carolinas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 221937Z - 222130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage will gradually increase through late
afternoon. Sporadic strong wind gusts will be possible. A watch may
be needed at some point, but a more organized severe risk is
uncertain.

DISCUSSION...Clusters of thunderstorms over northern AL and Middle
TN will continue to progress generally east/northeast through the
remainder of the afternoon. Most of the stronger midlevel flow
across the region is in the wake of an MCV/outflow boundary
extending from Middle TN into northwest AL, leaving generally weak
vertical shear across northern GA/eastern TN and the western
Carolinas. Nevertheless, a warm and moist airmass resides across the
area, resulting in moderate instability. Transient
multicells/clusters may produce sporadic strong/locally damaging
gusts. If a more organized cluster/bowing complex can develop
upstream closer to the MCV and move into this area late this
afternoon/early evening, some increased risk for damaging winds may
develop. A more organized severe risk and the need for a severe
thunderstorm watch is uncertain. Trends will be monitored.

..Leitman/Hart.. 06/22/2026
Click to expand...

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1256

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov
 
New MCD out mentioning severe threat could increase soon.
Mesoscale Discussion 1258
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0320 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Areas affected...northern AL and southern Middle TN

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 374...

Valid 222020Z - 222145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 374
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong/damaging wind gust potential may be increasing
across northern Alabama into southern Middle Tennessee over the next
1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...A dense cluster of convection over northern AL/southern
Middle TN has shown some signs of intensification recently. If this
area of convection can consolidate further, damaging wind potential
will increase in the short term. This activity is occurring within a
favorably shear environment, characterized by 35 kt 0-6 km effective
shear and around 200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH. Radar velocity signatures
have also increased both in intensity and with some middle rotation
noted. Greater forward propagation of this cluster may be underway
and an ensuing risk of severe wind gusts may occur soon. If this
evolution unfolds, a downstream watch may be needed.

..Leitman.. 06/22/2026
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