Severe WX Severe Weather Threat June 19-22

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[buckeye05]

If I was you, i wouldn't chase what appears to be a setup that will favor grungier, HP supercells with massive chaser convergence. There's always better (AND PHOTOGENIC) days to come that you should probably save for.

Thanks for letting me know. There’s what appears to be a series of East Colorado mesoscale days that will be in the cards after this one. Those can be rewarding if you play them the right way.

 

[Kds86z]

OZARKS INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY

AN EXPANSIVE MCS WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND
INTO MISSOURI ON SUNDAY MORNING. THIS MCS WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH
THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE AFTERNOON. AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THIS MCS ACROSS
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE DEGREE OF
AIRMASS RECOVERY WITHIN THIS REGION REMAINS UNCERTAIN. SOME GUIDANCE
SHOWS A SECONDARY MCS MOVING INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN
ARKANSAS, WHICH MAY HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE UPSTREAM EML AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING/RECOVERY IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING MCS.
HOWEVER, OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWS AN EML ADVECTING INTO THE REGION AND
AIDING IN RECOVERY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. A LOCALIZED
CORRIDOR WITH GREATER TORNADO THREAT LIKELY EXISTS ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY FROM EASTERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND PERHAPS
SOUTHWEST INDIANA, BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY FROM PRIOR STORMS
PRECLUDES ANY HIGHER TORNADO PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

HRRR removed the whole southern portion of morning convection. But even then, the morning convection in S IL could evolve into a tornado-producing QLCS.

Also, @buckeye05, i would take a gander tomorrow in SW NE if you have time. Sneaky setup for a photogenic supercell if you want to go there. SPC catching on to that setup additionally too.

 

[Jbop]

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

85/60 will sure favor a significant tornado threat and 90 0-1km SRH! Never change Reed!

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Woah, correction. The 12z HRRR says that cell in W NE could get interesting later. Strongly curved profiles with nearly 3k SBCAPE. Seems like @buckeye05 may have a chase on after all!

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

SUMMARY...Intensifying scattered thunderstorm development
increasingly probable by 2-4 PM MDT, with a few supercells evolving
thereafter. This may be accompanied by increasing potential for a
couple of strong tornadoes, mainly in a corridor west through south
of the Imperial, NE vicinity toward early evening.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

From our very own @Western_KS_Wx

 

[Kds86z]

Now tornado warned!

 

[Beachwalker]

Huge CC drop right over Stratton NE?

 

[eep]

Huge CC drop right over Stratton NE?

Probably contamination, not seeing anything on chaser feeds.

 

[Kds86z]